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Stock Market Predictability and Industrial Metal Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Ben Jacobsen

    (TIAS School for Business and Society, 5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands)

  • Ben R. Marshall

    (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North 422, New Zealand)

  • Nuttawat Visaltanachoti

    (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North 422, New Zealand)

Abstract

Price movements in industrial metals such as copper and aluminum predict stock returns. Increasing industrial metal prices are good news for equity markets in recessions and bad news in expansions. A one-standard-deviation increase in industrial metal returns predicts a price drop of one and a half percent in monthly stock market returns in expansions and an increase of around a half percent during recessions. The predictability is distinct to and compares favorably with that from more established predictors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben Jacobsen & Ben R. Marshall & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2019. "Stock Market Predictability and Industrial Metal Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(7), pages 3026-3042, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:65:y:2019:i:7:p:3026-3042
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.2933
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    3. Yahya, Muhammad & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali & Dutta, Anupam & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Evaluation of cross-quantile dependence and causality between non-ferrous metals and clean energy indexes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
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    5. Woode, John Kingsley & Owusu Junior, Peterson & Adam, Anokye M., 2024. "Dynamic interdependence structure of industrial metals and the African stock market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Julia S. Mehlitz & Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Time‐varying dynamics of expected shortfall in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 895-925, June.
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    8. Nakagawa, Kei & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2023. "Do commodity factors work as inflation hedges and safe havens?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    9. Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    11. Yabei Zhu & Xingguo Luo & Qi Xu, 2023. "Industry variance risk premium, cross‐industry correlation, and expected returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 3-32, January.
    12. Jiang, Yuexiang & Fu, Tao & Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu, 2022. "Real estate climate index and aggregate stock returns: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Huang, Dayong & Li, Jay Y. & Wu, Kai, 2021. "The effect of oil supply shocks on industry returns," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    14. Chenchen Li & Chongfeng Wu & Chunyang Zhou, 2021. "Forecasting equity returns: The role of commodity futures along the supply chain," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 46-71, January.
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    16. Liu, Guangqiang & Guo, Xiaozhu, 2022. "Forecasting stock market volatility using commodity futures volatility information," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Xianfeng Hao & Yudong Wang, 2023. "Cloud cover and expected oil returns," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Fernandez, Viviana & Pastén-Henríquez, Boris & Tapia-Griñen, Pablo & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2023. "Commodity prices under the threat of operational disruptions: Labor strikes at copper mines," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    19. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Christoph Würsig, 2020. "Volatility term structures in commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 527-555, April.
    20. Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Hongkui & Yu, Jiasheng & Zhang, Huajing, 2023. "International stock return predictability: The role of U.S. uncertainty spillover," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    21. Huang, Dashan & Li, Jiangyuan & Wang, Liyao, 2021. "Are disagreements agreeable? Evidence from information aggregation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 83-101.
    22. Ana Monteiro & Nuno Silva & Helder Sebastião, 2023. "Industry return lead-lag relationships between the US and other major countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-48, December.
    23. Rakesh Shahani & Utkarsh Singhal, 2023. "Do efficient commodity markets co-move: evidence from Indian base metals market," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(3), pages 413-425, September.
    24. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2021. "Stock return predictability over four centuries: The role of commodity returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).

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