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Dynamic Connectedness and Causality between Oil prices and Exchange Rates

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Abstract

We study connectedness and causality between oil prices and exchange rates dynamically. Using data on the WTI and exchange rate returns for six countries in which oil production is a major production activity, we show that oil prices are net receptors of spillovers from excahnge rate markets. Connectedness exhibits important time variation and presents a positive trend during our sample period. We find evidence of bidirectional causality between oil prices and exchange rates, which presents also considerable time-variation. Causality is identified for longer periods of time from oil prices to exchange rates. However, we also find evidence of reverse causality, mainly in the period after the Subprime Financial Crisis. Our results provide evidence supporting the hypothesis of the financialization of oil markets.

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  • Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzon & Jorge M. Uribe, 2017. "Dynamic Connectedness and Causality between Oil prices and Exchange Rates," Borradores de Economia 1025, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1025
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1025
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alam, Md. Samsul & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ferrer, Román, 2019. "Causal flows between oil and forex markets using high-frequency data: Asymmetries from good and bad volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying causality; Oil price; Stock market returns; Emerging market economies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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