The Relationship Between Government Size and Economic Performance with Particular Application to New Zealand
This paper argues that the ambiguous relationship found between government size and economic growth in the empirical growth literature can be attributed at least in part to the different time series characteristics of the two series. For most countries economic growth is stationary while government size has almost always been non-stationary, implying that the finding of a negative correlation between the two series is likely to be spurious. From a time series perspective, economic performance and government size should be approached by first looking for evidence of cointegration between the two non-stationary series: government size and per capita real output. Then, should evidence of cointegration exist, the analysis can be extended to look for evidence of short run movement about the implied long run model through an error correction model. When this approach is applied to New Zealand, evidence of a long run, inverted U-shaped relationship between government size and private per capita output is revealed. The corresponding error-correction models reveal that while transitory short run increases in government expenditure size are generally ineffective in increasing real output, increases in government spending relative to taxation are. On the other hand, the concomitant increase in national debt is found to decrease real output in both the long and the short run. Since the net effect of fiscal expenditures will be the sum of the latter three (and conditional on its initial position), it is not surprising to find that conclusions on fiscal effectiveness will be highly problematic.
|Date of creation:||31 Oct 2012|
|Date of revision:||25 Apr 2013|
|Publication status:||Published: Carleton Economic Papers|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: C870 Loeb Building, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa Ontario, K1S 5B6 Canada|
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Holden, Tom, 2011.
"Products, patents and productivity persistence: A DSGE model of endogenous growth,"
Dynare Working Papers
- Tom Holden, 2010. "Products, patents and productivity persistence: A DSGE model of endogenous growth," Economics Series Working Papers 512, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Timothy G. Conley & Bill Dupor, 2003. "A Spatial Analysis of Sectoral Complementarity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 311-352, April.
- Susanto Basu, 1995.
"Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?,"
NBER Working Papers
5336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
- Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997.
"When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-53, July.
- Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Faust and Leeper JBES 1997 paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00058, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," International Finance Discussion Papers 462, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005.
"Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1237-1278, December.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher J. Gust, 2004. "Can long-run restrictions identify technology shocks?," International Finance Discussion Papers 792, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2004. "Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 3, Society for Computational Economics.
- Hervé Boulhol, 2008.
"The Convergence of Price–cost Margins,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 221-240, April.
- Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2012. "Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Saving," NBER Working Papers 18154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baldwin,John R. & Gorecki,Paul, 1998.
"The Dynamics of Industrial Competition,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633574, November.
- Gagnon, Edith & Khan, Hashmat, 2005. "New Phillips curve under alternative production technologies for Canada, the United States, and the Euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1571-1602, August.
- Herve Boulhol, 2010. "Pro-competitive Effect of Trade and Non-decreasing Price-Cost Margins," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(3), pages 326-356, 06.
- Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2003.
"Medium Term Business Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
10003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ian Domowitz & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1986. "Business Cycles and the Relationship Between Concentration and Price-Cost Margins," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, Spring.
- Lutz Kilian, 2009.
"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francisco Rodriguez & Arjun Jayadev, 2010. "The Declining Labor Share of Income," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-36, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
- Nir Jaimovich, 2004.
"Firm Dynamics, Markup Variations, and the Business Cycle,"
07-013, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, revised Mar 2007.
- Jaimovich, Nir & Floetotto, Max, 2008. "Firm dynamics, markup variations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1238-1252, October.
- Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2013. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup," NBER Working Papers 19099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1991. "Markups and the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 63-140 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wang, Weimin & Ciobanu, Oana, 2012. "Firm Dynamics: Firm Entry and Exit in Canada, 2000 to 2008," The Canadian Economy in Transition 2012022e, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis.
- Bils, Mark, 1987. "The Cyclical Behavior of Marginal Cost and Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 838-55, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:car:carecp:12-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabrina Robineau)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.