IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Medium-frequency cycles and the remarkable near trend-stationarity of output

  • Tom Holden

    (University of Surrey)

This paper builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of endogenous growth that generates large medium-frequency cycles while robustly matching the near trend-stationary path of observed output. This requires a model in which standard business cycle shocks lead to highly persistent movements around trend, without significantly altering the trend itself. The robustness of the trend also requires that we eliminate the scale effects and knife edge assumptions that plague most growth models. In our model, when products go out of patent protection, the rush of entry into their production destroys incentives for process improvements. Consequently, old production processes are enshrined in industries producing non-protected products, and shocks that affect invention rates change the proportion of industries with advanced technologies. In an estimated version of our model, a financial-type shock to the stock of ideas emerges as the key driver of the medium frequency cycle.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.fahs.surrey.ac.uk/economics/discussion_papers/2012/DP14-12.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series School of Economics Discussion Papers with number 1412.

as
in new window

Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1412
Contact details of provider: Postal: Guildford, Surrey GU2 5XH
Phone: (01483) 259380
Fax: (01483) 259548
Web page: http://www.surrey.ac.uk/economics/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Carlos J. Serrano, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Transfer and Renewal of Patents," Working Papers tecipa-227, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  2. Christian Groth & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas Steger, 2010. "When economic growth is less than exponential," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 213-242, August.
  3. Christian Bayer & Ruediger Bachmann, 2009. "The Cross-section of Firms over the Business Cycle: New Facts and a DSGE Exploration," 2009 Meeting Papers 866, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Fransesco Furlanetto & Martin Seneca, 2010. "New Perspectives on Depreciation Shocks as a Source of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Economics wp48, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  5. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 300-323, May.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Nick Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2005. "Competition and Innovation: An Inverted-U Relationship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 701-728, May.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  8. Ellen R. McGrattan & Patrick J. Kehoe & V. V. Chari, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Working Papers 664, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  10. Comin, Diego & Gertler, Mark & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2009. "Technology Innovation and Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations," Working Papers 2014-45, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2007. "The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity," Working Papers tecipa-300, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  12. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  13. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1991. "A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital," NBER Working Papers 3906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jeff Wrase & Kerk Phillips, 2004. "Is Schumpeterian Creative Destruction a Plausible Source of Endogenous Real Business Cycle Shocks," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 428, Econometric Society.
  15. Bental, Benjamin & Peled, Dan, 1996. "The Accumulation of Wealth and the Cyclical Generation of New Technologies: A Search Theoretic Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 687-718, August.
  16. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-80, July.
  19. Poldahl, Andreas & Gustavsson Tingvall, Patrik, 2005. "Is There Really an Inverted U-shaped Relation Between Competition and R&D?," Working Paper Series 204, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research.
  20. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2010. "Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 691-723, June.
  21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  22. Allen Head & Lucy Qian Liu & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2011. "Sticky prices: a new monetarist approach," Working Papers 690, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2008. "Implementation Cycles, Investment, And Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 901-942, 08.
  24. Ryo Horii, 2005. "Wants and Past Knowledge: Growth Cycles with Emerging Industries," Development and Comp Systems 0504007, EconWPA, revised 10 Jan 2006.
  25. Matthias Kehrig, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Productivity Dispersion," Working Papers 11-15, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  26. Natarajan Balasubramanian & Jagadeesh Sivadasan, 2011. "What Happens When Firms Patent? New Evidence from U.S. Economic Census Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 126-146, February.
  27. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, . "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  28. Alessandro Barattieri & Susanto Basu & Peter Gottschalk, 2010. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Wages," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 740, Boston College Department of Economics.
  29. Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & La Porta, Rafael & Shleifer, Andrei, 2008. "The Economic Consequences of Legal Origins," Scholarly Articles 2962610, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  30. Ginarte, Juan C. & Park, Walter G., 1997. "Determinants of patent rights: A cross-national study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-301, October.
  31. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  32. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  33. Michael Keane & Richard Rogerson, 2012. "Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Reassessment of Conventional Wisdom," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 464-76, June.
  34. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Jeffrey Campbell, 1998. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 371-408, April.
  36. Pavlov, Oscar & Weder, Mark, 2012. "Variety matters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 629-641.
  37. Colin Ellis, 2006. "Elasticities, markups and technical progress: evidence from a state-space approach," Bank of England working papers 300, Bank of England.
  38. Ariel Rubinstein, 2010. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000000387, David K. Levine.
  39. Holden, Tom, 2011. "Products, patents and productivity persistence: A DSGE model of endogenous growth," Dynare Working Papers 4, CEPREMAP.
  40. Diego Comin, 2009. "On the integration of growth and business cycles," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 165-176, May.
  41. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2009. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 7598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  42. Adjemian, Stéphane & Bastani, Houtan & Karamé, Fréderic & Juillard, Michel & Maih, Junior & Mihoubi, Ferhat & Perendia, George & Pfeifer, Johannes & Ratto, Marco & Villemot, Sébastien, 2011. "Dynare: Reference Manual Version 4," Dynare Working Papers 1, CEPREMAP, revised Jul 2014.
  43. Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2013. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Price-Cost Markup," NBER Working Papers 19099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Mansfield, Edwin, 1993. "The diffusion of industrial robots in Japan and the United States," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 105-105, April.
  45. Michael Dueker & Andreas Fischer & Robert D. Dittmar, 2002. "Stochastic Capital Depreciation and the Comovement of Hours and Productivity," Working Papers 02.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  46. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Samuel, 1999. "International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 537-70, August.
  47. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Regime-switching DSGE Approach," Emory Economics 1002, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  48. Comin, Diego & Mulani, Sunil, 2009. "A theory of growth and volatility at the aggregate and firm level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1023-1042, November.
  49. Robert B. Litterman, 1983. "A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series," Staff Report 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  50. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
  51. Bonanno, Giacomo, 1988. "Oligopoly Equilibria When Firms Have Local Knowledge of Demand," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(1), pages 45-55, February.
  52. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.
  53. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1996. "Growing Through Cycles," Discussion Papers 1203, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  54. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  55. William B. Peterman, 2012. "Reconciling micro and macro estimates of the Frisch labor supply elasticity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-75, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  56. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Rampini, Adriano A., 2006. "Capital reallocation and liquidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 369-399, April.
  57. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  58. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  59. John Scott, 1984. "Firm versus Industry Variability in R&D Intensity," NBER Chapters, in: R&D, Patents, and Productivity, pages 233-248 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Forni, Mario & Paba, Sergio, 2002. "Spillovers and the Growth of Local Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 151-71, June.
  61. Diewert, W Erwin, 1978. "Superlative Index Numbers and Consistency in Aggregation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 883-900, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1412. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alex Mandilaras)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.