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When economic growth is less than exponential

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Abstract

This paper argues that growth theory needs a more general notion of “regularity” than that of exponential growth. We suggest that paths along which the rate of decline of the growth rate is proportional to the growth rate itself deserve attention. This opens up for considering a richer set of parameter combinations than in standard growth models. And it avoids the usual oversimplistic dichotomy of either exponential growth or stagnation. Allowing zero population growth in three different growth models (the Jones R&D-based model, a learning-by-doing model, and an embodied technical change model) serves as illustrations that a continuum of “regular” growth processes fill the whole range between exponential growth and complete stagnation.

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  • Christian Groth & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas M. Steger, 2009. "When economic growth is less than exponential," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 129-09, Universität Siegen, Fakultät Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht.
    • Handle: RePEc:sie:siegen:129-09
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    Cited by:

    1. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2013. "Constant-utility paths in a resource-based economy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 342-355.
    2. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2017. "The lost race against the machine: Automation, education and inequality in an R&D-based growth model," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 08-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    3. Growiec, Jakub, 2010. "Knife-edge conditions in the modeling of long-run growth regularities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1143-1154, December.
    4. Jakub Growiec, 2020. "What Will Drive Long-Run Growth in the Digital Age?," KAE Working Papers 2020-054, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    5. Christian Groth & Ronald Wendner, 2011. "Learning by Investing, Embodiment, and Speed of Convergence," EPRU Working Paper Series 2011-01, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    6. Aisa, Rosa & Cabeza, Josefina & Martin, Jorge, 2023. "Automation and aging: The impact on older workers in the workforce," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    7. Hof, Franz X. & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "The quest for status and R&D-based growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 290-307.
    8. Jakub Growiec & Christian Groth, 2012. "A Note on Aggregating Human Capital Across Heterogeneous Cohorts," EcoMod2012 4193, EcoMod.
    9. Klaus Prettner & David Canning, 2014. "Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement in general equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(1), pages 191-217, May.
    10. Grossmann, Volker, 2009. "Entrepreneurial innovation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 602-613, December.
    11. Grossmann, Volker, 2008. "Entrepreneurial Innovation and Sustained Long-Run Growth without Weak or Strong Scale Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 3389, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Cabo, Francisco & Martín-Herrán, Guiomar & Martínez-García, María Pilar, 2016. "Unbounded growth in the Neoclassical growth model with non-constant discounting," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 93-104.
    13. Tom Holden, 2010. "Products, patents and productivity persistence: A DSGE model of endogenous growth," Economics Series Working Papers 512, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Bugajewski, Dariusz & Maćkowiak, Piotr, 2015. "On knife-edge conditions with unbounded growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 274-283.
    15. Antonio Minniti & Carmelo Parello & Paul Segerstrom, 2013. "A Schumpeterian growth model with random quality improvements," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(2), pages 755-791, March.
    16. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2020. "Is growth declining in the service economy?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 26-38.
    17. Tom Holden, 2012. "Medium-frequency cycles and the remarkable near trend-stationarity of output," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1412, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    18. Groth, Christian & Wendner, Ronald, 2014. "Embodied learning by investing and speed of convergence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 245-269.
    19. Jaime Alonso-Carrera & Carlos Miguel & Baltasar Manzano, 2019. "Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation When Preferences are Non-homothetic," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(3), pages 1011-1036, November.
    20. Kruse-Andersen, Peter Kjær, 2023. "Directed technical change, environmental sustainability, and population growth," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quasi-arithmetic growth; Regular growth; Semi-endogenous growth; Knife-edge restrictions; Learning by doing; Embodied technical change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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