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When economic growth is less than exponential

  • Christian Groth

    ()

  • Karl-Josef Koch
  • Thomas Steger

This paper argues that growth theory needs a more general notion of “regularity” than that of exponential growth. We suggest that paths along which the rate of decline of the growth rate is proportional to the growth rate itself deserve attention. This opens up for considering a richer set of parameter combinations than in standard growth models. And it avoids the usual oversimplistic dichotomy of either exponential growth or stagnation. Allowing zero population growth in three different growth models (the Jones R&D-based model, a learning-by-doing model, and an embodied technical change model) serves as illustrations that a continuum of “regular” growth processes fill the whole range between exponential growth and complete stagnation.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 44 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 213-242

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:44:y:2010:i:2:p:213-242
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  1. Growiec, Jakub, 2010. "Knife-edge conditions in the modeling of long-run growth regularities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1143-1154, December.
  2. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August.
  3. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June.
  4. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  7. Maria J. Alvarez-Pelaez & Christian Groth, 2002. "Too little or too much R&D?," Discussion Papers 02-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  8. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
  9. Raouf Boucekkine & Fernando del Río & Omar Licandro, 2003. "Embodied Technological Change, Learning-by-doing and the Productivity Slowdown," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(1), pages 87-98, 03.
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  14. Lutz G. Arnold, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Jones R&D Growth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 143-152, January.
  15. Charles I. Jones, 2004. "Growth and Ideas," NBER Working Papers 10767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2135, David K. Levine.
  17. Hendrik Hakenes & Andreas Irmen, 2007. "On the long-run evolution of technological knowledge," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 171-180, January.
  18. Jakub Growiec, 2005. "Beyond the Linearity Critique: The Knife-Edge Assumption of Steady State Growth," GE, Growth, Math methods 0505003, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 2005.
  19. Kremer, Michael, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716, August.
  20. Solow, Robert M., 2000. "Growth Theory: An Exposition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195109030, March.
  21. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, June.
  22. Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 1994. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," NBER Working Papers 4795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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