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When economic growth is less than exponential

  • Christian Groth

    ()

  • Karl-Josef Koch
  • Thomas Steger

This paper argues that growth theory needs a more general notion of “regularity” than that of exponential growth. We suggest that paths along which the rate of decline of the growth rate is proportional to the growth rate itself deserve attention. This opens up for considering a richer set of parameter combinations than in standard growth models. And it avoids the usual oversimplistic dichotomy of either exponential growth or stagnation. Allowing zero population growth in three different growth models (the Jones R&D-based model, a learning-by-doing model, and an embodied technical change model) serve as illustrations that a continuum of “regular” growth processes fill the whole range between exponential growth and complete stagnation.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00199-009-0480-y
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 44 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 213-242

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:44:y:2010:i:2:p:213-242
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  1. Jakub Growiec, 2005. "Beyond the Linearity Critique: The Knife-Edge Assumption of Steady State Growth," GE, Growth, Math methods 0505003, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 2005.
  2. Lutz G. Arnold, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Jones R&D Growth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(1), pages 143-152, January.
  3. Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Endogenous Technological Change," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2135, David K. Levine.
  5. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1996. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," RCER Working Papers 420, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, June.
  7. Growiec, Jakub, 2010. "Knife-edge conditions in the modeling of long-run growth regularities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1143-1154, December.
  8. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Fernando DEL RIO & Omar LICANDRO, 2002. "Embodied technological change learning-by-doing and the productivity slowdown," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  9. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August.
  10. Alvarez-Pelaez, Maria J. & Groth, Christian, 2005. "Too little or too much R&D?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 437-456, February.
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  14. Kremer, Michael, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716, August.
  15. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
  16. Robert M. Solow, 1994. "Perspectives on Growth Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 45-54, Winter.
  17. Hendrik Hakenes & Andreas Irmen, 2007. "On the long-run evolution of technological knowledge," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 171-180, January.
  18. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  19. John Hartwick, 1976. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," Working Papers 220, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  20. Asheim, Geir B. & Buchholz, Wolfgang & Hartwick, John M. & Mitra, Tapan & Withagen, Cees, 2005. "Constant savings rates and quasi-arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints," Memorandum 23/2005, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  21. Mitra, Tapan, 1983. "Limits on Population Growth under Exhaustible Resource Constraints," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 155-68, February.
  22. Solow, Robert M., 2000. "Growth Theory: An Exposition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780195109030, March.
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