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Endogenous Growth and Wave-Like Business Fluctuation

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  • Mauro Bambi
  • Omar Licandro

Abstract

This paper argues that observed long lags in innovation implementation rationalize Schumpeter's statement that “wave-like fluctuations in business ... are the form economic development takes in the era of capitalism.” Adding implementation delays to an otherwise standard endogenous growth model with expanding product variety, the equilibrium path admits a Hopf bifurcation where consumption, R&D and output permanently fluctuate. This mechanism is quantitatively consistent with the observed medium-term movements of US aggregate output. In this framework, an optimal allocation may be restored at equilibrium by the mean of a procyclical subsidy, needed to generate additional consumption smoothing. Finally, a procyclical R&D subsidy rate designed to half consumption fluctuations will increase the growth rate from 2.4% to 3.4% with a 9.6% (compensation equivalent) increase in welfare.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mauro Bambi & Omar Licandro, "undated". "Endogenous Growth and Wave-Like Business Fluctuation," Working Papers 533, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:533
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    3. Lin, Hwan C. & Shampine, L.F., 2014. "Finite-length Patents and Functional Differential Equations in a Non-scale R&D-based Growth Model," MPRA Paper 61603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nikolay Chernyshev, 2017. "R&D Cyclicality and Composition Effects: A Unifying Approach," CDMA Working Paper Series 201705, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    5. Simone Marsiglio & Marco Tolotti, 2018. "Endogenous growth and technological progress with innovation driven by social interactions," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(2), pages 293-328, March.
    6. Mauro Bambi & Cristina Girolami & Salvatore Federico & Fausto Gozzi, 2017. "Generically distributed investments on flexible projects and endogenous growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 521-558, February.
    7. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & FABBRI, Giorgio & PINTUS, Patrick, 2012. "On the optimal control of a linear neutral differential equation arising in economics," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2449, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Jing Wan & Jie Zhang, 2023. "R&D subsidies, income taxes, and growth through cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 76(3), pages 827-866, October.
    9. Omar Licandro & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2018. "Continuous vs Discrete Time Modelling in Growth and Business Cycle Theory," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-28, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    10. Zaifu Yang & Rong Zhang, 2021. "Generalized Cumulative Offer Processes," Discussion Papers 21/08, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. Zaifu Yang & Rong Zhang, 2024. "Consumption, Wealth, Frugality, and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 25(1), pages 31-61, May.
    12. Hartwig, Johannes, 2022. "Semi-endogenous growth dynamics in a macroeconomic model with delays," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 538-551.
    13. Hwan C. Lin & L. F. Shampine, 2018. "R&D-based Calibrated Growth Models with Finite-Length Patents: A Novel Relaxation Algorithm for Solving an Autonomous FDE System of Mixed Type," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 123-158, January.
    14. Gordon, Sidartha & Marlats, Chantal & Ménager, Lucie, 2021. "Observation delays in teams and effort cycles," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 276-298.
    15. Raouf Boucekkine & Giorgio Fabbri & Patrick-Antoine Pintus, 2011. "On the optimal control of a linear neutral differential equation arising in economics," Working Papers halshs-00576770, HAL.
    16. Hwan C. Lin, 2018. "Computing Transitional Cycles for a Deterministic Time-to-Build Growth Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 677-696, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    endogenous growth;

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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