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Does the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks depend on the level of inflation?

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  • Gründler, Daniel

Abstract

I show that the pass-through of gasoline price shocks to inflation expectations and to a lesser extent realized inflation is larger if inflation is high. Pronounced historical contributions to inflation expectations mainly occurred in highly inflationary periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Gründler, Daniel, 2024. "Does the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks depend on the level of inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:243:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524004129
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111928
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    3. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    4. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    5. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2023. "A broader perspective on the inflationary effects of energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Cristina Conflitti & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(6), pages 221-248, November.
    7. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Joint Bayesian inference about impulse responses in VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 457-476.
    8. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2021. "Uncertainty‐driven business cycles: Assessing the markup channel," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 587-623, May.
    9. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Oil prices, gasoline prices, and inflation expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 867-881, August.
    10. Todd E. Clark & Stephen J. Terry, 2010. "Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1419-1433, October.
    11. Richhild Moessner, 2021. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 9467, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gasoline price shock; Inflation; Expectations; TVAR; State dependency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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