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The Effects of Oil Price Changes on the Industry-Level Production and Prices in the U.S. and Japan

  • Ichiro Fukunaga

    (Director, Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan.)

  • Naohisa Hirakata

    (Deputy Director, Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan.)

  • Nao Sudo

    (Associate Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.)

In this paper, we decompose oil price changes into their component parts following Kilian (2009) and estimate the dynamic effects of each component on industry-level production and prices in the U.S. and Japan using identified VAR models. The way oil price changes affect each industry depends on what kind of underlying shock drives oil price changes as well as on industry characteristics. Unexpected disruptions of oil supply act mainly as negative supply shocks for oil- intensive industries and act mainly as negative demand shocks for less oil- intensive industries. For most industries in the U.S., shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities act mainly as positive demand shocks, and demand shocks that are specific to the global oil market act mainly as negative supply shocks. In Japan, the oil-specific demand shocks as well as the global demand shocks act mainly as positive demand shocks for many industries.

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Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 09-E-24.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:09-e-24
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