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The effects of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation: A synthetic-controls approach

Author

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  • Ruiz, Miguel Haro
  • Schult, Christoph
  • Wunder, Christoph

Abstract

This study employs synthetic control methods to estimate the effect of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation, for both Spain and Portugal. We find that the intervention led to an average reduction of approximately 40% in the spot price of electricity between July 2022 and June 2023 in both Spain and Portugal. Regarding overall inflation, we observe notable differences between the two countries. In Spain, the intervention has an immediate effect, and results in an average decrease of 3.5 percentage points over the twelve months under consideration. In Portugal, however, the impact is small and generally close to zero. Different electricity market structures in each country are a plausible explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruiz, Miguel Haro & Schult, Christoph & Wunder, Christoph, 2024. "The effects of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation: A synthetic-controls approach," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:283618
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Fabra & Clément Leblanc & Mateus Souza, 2025. "Unpacking the Distributional Implications of the Energy Crisis Lessons from the Iberian Electricity Market," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_716, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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