IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v94y2021ics0140988320304199.html

The relation between petroleum product prices and crude oil prices

Author

Listed:
  • Ederington, Louis H.
  • Fernando, Chitru S.
  • Lee, Thomas K.
  • Linn, Scott C.
  • Zhang, Huiming

Abstract

We present an empirical examination of the relation between real spot Brent oil prices and real spot petroleum product prices, specifically gasoline and heating oil prices. Based upon weekly price data spanning a 30-year period ending in April 2019, we provide consistent evidence of Granger causality running from oil prices to product prices accounting for both non-stationarity of the series, and separately conditional heteroskedasticity. No evidence of Granger causality from product prices to oil prices is found for the full sample period nor the period up to the end of 2005, but evidence that gasoline prices Granger-caused oil prices is found for post-2005. Similar results are found for an extended model that also includes potentially endogenous real market variables related to supply and demand in the oil, heating oil and gasoline markets. Given the reduced form model results that oil prices Granger-cause gasoline and heating oil prices, we specify and estimate recursively identified structural vector autoregressive models that specifically account for structural supply and demand shocks in the oil market as well as the petroleum product markets. The oil market block follows Kilian (2009). We find that real spot gasoline prices and real heating oil prices do not respond to structural oil supply shocks, respond transiently to global commodity demand shocks, but do respond to oil-specific demand shocks. We conclude the result that spot oil prices Granger-cause spot gasoline and heating oil prices largely occurs through the channel of oil-specific demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C. & Zhang, Huiming, 2021. "The relation between petroleum product prices and crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:94:y:2021:i:c:s0140988320304199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988320304199
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.105079?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kilian, Lutz & Demiroglu, Ufuk, 2000. "Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 40-50, January.
    2. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 549-568.
    3. Kilian, Lutz, 2019. "Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 106-110.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2016. "The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on U.S. Oil and Gasoline Prices," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(2), pages 185-205.
    5. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Mann, Micheal, 2009. "Horizontal and vertical transmissions in the US oil supply chain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 644-650, February.
    6. repec:aen:journl:2007v28-01-a02 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:aen:journl:2010v31-02-a04 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:aen:journl:ej34-3-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    11. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343.
    12. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Are Product Spreads Useful For Forecasting Oil Prices? An Empirical Evaluation Of The Verleger Hypothesis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 562-580, April.
    13. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    14. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    16. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    17. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    18. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    19. Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
    20. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    21. repec:aen:journl:ej35-1-02 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:aen:journl:2008v29-01-a06 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, Enero-Abr.
    24. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    25. Mann, Janelle & Sephton, Peter, 2016. "Global relationships across crude oil benchmarks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-5.
    26. Philip K Verleger, 2011. "The Margin, Currency, and the Price of Oil," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 71-82, April.
    27. James Tobin, 1970. "Money and Income: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 301-317.
    28. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    29. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    30. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
    31. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
    32. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    33. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    34. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera, 2007. "Econometric Models Of Asymmetric Price Transmission," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 349-415, April.
    35. Pock, Markus, 2010. "Gasoline demand in Europe: New insights," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 54-62, January.
    36. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "Characteristics of petroleum product prices: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-15.
    37. Park, Sung Y. & Zhao, Guochang, 2010. "An estimation of U.S. gasoline demand: A smooth time-varying cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 110-120, January.
    38. Verleger, Philip K, Jr, 1982. "The Determinants of Official OPEC Crude Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 177-182, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José Carlos Vides & Julia Feria & Antonio A. Golpe & Juan Manuel Martín-Álvarez, 2024. "How do supply or demand shocks affect the US oil market?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Cunado, Juncal & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Hardik, Marfatia, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers across precious metals and oil realized volatilities: Evidence from quantile extended joint connectedness measures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    3. Bergantino, Angela S. & Intini, Mario & Nademi, Younes & Nuzzo, Federica, 2025. "Exploring cross-border energy policies and their impact on gasoline prices in Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Xiaodan & Wei, Yu & Bai, Lan, 2023. "Does the connectedness among fossil energy returns matter for renewable energy stock returns? Fresh insights from the Cross-Quantilogram analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Salah Uddin, Gazi & Lucey, Brian & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Stenvall, David, 2024. "Quantile coherency across bonds, commodities, currencies, and equities," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    6. Su, Guandong & Zhang, Chen & Li, Yizheng, 2025. "Resource-energy-environment nexus in converting food waste to biobutanol: Potential for resource recovery, energy security, and greenhouse gas mitigation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    7. Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran & Irfan, Ghina & Al-Titi, Omar, 2025. "Asymmetric transmission of crude oil prices into fuel prices - Evidence from Pakistan," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    8. Brueckner, Markus & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Loayza, Norman, 2025. "Oil revenues and labor market reforms," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Burns, Christopher B. & Kane, Stephen, 2022. "Arbitrage breakdown in WTI crude oil futures: An analysis of the events on April 20, 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. José Carlos Vides & Julia Feria & Antonio A. Golpe & Juan Manuel Martín-Álvarez, 2024. "How do supply or demand shocks affect the US oil market?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
    4. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, volume 45, pages 65-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Bilgin, Doga & Ellwanger, Reinhard, 2024. "A simple model of global fuel consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2021. "The effect of structural oil shocks on bank systemic risk in the GCC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    8. Jamie L. Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Trung Duc Tran, 2022. "The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 882-895, August.
    9. Jamie L. Cross & Bao H. Nguyen & Trung Duc Tran, 2020. "The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil," CAMA Working Papers 2020-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Jochen H. F. Güntner & Katharina Linsbauer, 2018. "The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1617-1644, October.
    12. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 673-691, September.
    13. Zeina Alsalman, 2021. "Does the source of oil supply shock matter in explaining the behavior of U.S. consumer spending and sentiment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1491-1518, September.
    14. Kilian, Lutz, 2024. "How to construct monthly VAR proxies based on daily surprises in futures markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    15. Ryan, Rich & Michieka, Nyakundi, 2025. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike. A Replication Study of Kilian (American Economic Review, 2009)," Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics (JCRE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 4, pages 1-27.
    16. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    17. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Information: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand S," CEPR Discussion Papers 13068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Do oil-market shocks drive global liquidity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    19. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Facts and fiction in oil market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    20. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Osama D. Sweidan, 2020. "Do structural shocks in the crude oil market affect biofuel prices?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 164, pages 183-193.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:94:y:2021:i:c:s0140988320304199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.