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A monetary model of TL/US$ exchange rate: a co-integrating approach


  • Levent, Korap


In our paper, we investigate the exchange rate determination mechanism of TL/US$ for the 1987Q1-2006Q4 period using quarterly observations. Following the monetary model exchange rate determination based on the economic fundamentals, the multivariate Johansen-Juselius type co-integrating modeling is employed to reveal the long-run stationary relationships leading to the determination of nominal exchange rate for the Turkish economy. Our findings give strong support to the monetary model of exchange rate and indicate that nominal exchange rate is co-integrated with the fundamentals suggested by economics theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Levent, Korap, 2008. "A monetary model of TL/US$ exchange rate: a co-integrating approach," MPRA Paper 20389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20389

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
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    4. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate under High Inflation -The case of the Turkish Lira/US Dollar," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(3-4), pages 113-129, March.
    5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    6. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
    7. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kara, Orhan, 2000. "Exchange rate overshooting in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 89-93, July.
    10. McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S, 1994. "Cointegration Tests of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for Three High-Inflation Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 396-411, August.
    11. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    12. Marco Rossi & Daniel Leigh, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 02/204, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
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    More about this item


    Exchange Rates; Monetary Model; Turkish Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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