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Local projections in unstable environments

Author

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  • Inoue, Atsushi
  • Rossi, Barbara
  • Wang, Yiru

Abstract

This paper develops a local projection estimator for estimating impulse responses in the presence of time variation. Importantly, we allow local instabilities in both slope coefficients and variances. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate that the method performs well in practice. Using our proposed estimator, we shed new light on the effects of fiscal policy shocks and the size of government spending multipliers. Our analysis uncovers the existence of instabilities that were unaccounted for in previous studies, and links time variation in the multipliers to the size of government debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara & Wang, Yiru, 2024. "Local projections in unstable environments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:244:y:2024:i:2:s0304407624000721
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105726
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time variation; Local projections; Instability; Path estimator; Fiscal multiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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