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Volatility term structures in commodity markets

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  • Fabian Hollstein
  • Marcel Prokopczuk
  • Christoph Würsig

Abstract

In this study, we comprehensively examine the volatility term structures in commodity markets. We model state‐dependent spillovers in principal components (PCs) of the volatility term structures of different commodities, as well as that of the equity market. We detect strong economic links and a substantial interconnectedness of the volatility term structures of commodities. Accounting for intra‐commodity‐market spillovers significantly improves out‐of‐sample forecasts of the components of the volatility term structure. Spillovers following macroeconomic news announcements account for a large proportion of this forecast power. There thus seems to be substantial information transmission between different commodity markets.

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  • Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Christoph Würsig, 2020. "Volatility term structures in commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 527-555, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:40:y:2020:i:4:p:527-555
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22083
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christian Urom & Gideon Ndubuisi & Jude Ozor, 2021. "Economic activity, and financial and commodity markets’ shocks: An analysis of implied volatility indexes," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 51-66.
    3. Manuel Ammann & Mathis Moerke & Marcel Prokopczuk & Christoph Matthias Würsig, 2023. "Commodity tail risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 168-197, February.
    4. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Tharann, Björn & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2021. "Predictability in commodity markets: Evidence from more than a century," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    5. Urom, Christian & Ndubuisi, Gideon & Ozor, Jude, 2021. "Economic activity, and financial and commodity markets’ shocks: An analysis of implied volatility indexes," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 51-66.
    6. Finta, Marinela Adriana & Ornelas, José Renato Haas, 2022. "Commodity return predictability: Evidence from implied variance, skewness, and their risk premia☆☆," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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