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The Term Structure of Systematic and Idiosyncratic Risk

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  • Hollstein, Fabian
  • Prokopczuk, Marcel
  • Wese Simen, Chardin

Abstract

We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little indication of a time-varying term premium. Turning the focus to individual stocks, we cannot reject the expectations hypothesis for the systematic variance, but we strongly reject it for idiosyncratic variance. Our results are robust to jumps and potential statistical biases.

Suggested Citation

  • Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "The Term Structure of Systematic and Idiosyncratic Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-618, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-618
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    Keywords

    options; term structure; expectations hypothesis; model-free option implied variance; implied correlation; systematic risk; beta; idiosyncratic variance;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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