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The term structure of commercial paper rates

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  • Chris Downing
  • Stephen D. Oliner

Abstract

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis in the market for commercial paper. Our main dataset, which is new to the literature, consists of daily indexes constructed from the actual market yields for nearly all commercial paper issued by U.S. corporations between January 1998 and August 2003. We show that the term premia built into commercial paper yields rise dramatically at year-end, causing the expectations hypothesis to be rejected. However, once we control for these predictable year-end effects, we find the reverse--that commercial paper yields largely conform with the expectations hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Downing & Stephen D. Oliner, 2004. "The term structure of commercial paper rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2004-18
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    Cited by:

    1. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian T. & Swanson, Eric P., 2007. "Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 201-212, April.
    2. Yasuo Hirose & Shinsuke Ohyama & Ken Taniguchi, 2009. "Identifying the Effect of Bank of Japan's Liquidity Provision on the Year-End Premium: A Structural Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 09-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    3. Brown, Craig R. & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2008. "Further analysis of the expectations hypothesis using very short-term rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 600-613, April.
    4. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño & Eliseo Navarro, 2020. "Yield curves from different bond data sets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 191-226, July.
    5. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco & Navarro, Eliseo, 2018. "Zero-coupon interest rates: Evaluating three alternative datasets," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-67, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Daniel M. Covitz & J. Nellie Liang & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2009. "The anatomy of a financial crisis: the evolution of panic-driven runs in the asset-backed commercial paper market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan, pages 1-36.
    8. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Chardin Wese Simen, 2019. "The term structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 435-460, April.
    9. Kuriyama Nina, 2016. "Testing cointegration in quantile regressions with an application to the term structure of interest rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 107-121, April.
    10. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
    11. Kotomin, Vladimir, 2011. "A test of the expectations hypothesis in very short-term international rates in the presence of preferred habitat for liquidity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-55, February.
    12. Daniel M. Covitz & J. Nellie Liang & Gustavo A. Suarez, 2009. "The evolution of a financial crisis: panic in the asset-backed commercial paper market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Griffiths, Mark D. & Kotomin, Vladimir & Winters, Drew B., 2009. "Year-end and quarter-end effects in the term structure of sterling repo and Eurepo rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 803-817, December.

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