IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1828.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Angelo Melino

Abstract

The term structure of interest rates is an old topic. Over the years, both the hypotheses debated and the research techniques used have changed considerably. Two fairly recent developments which distinguish current research are the widespread adoption of rational expectations and the integration of the term structure with the general theory of asset pricing. This survey reviews previous work from this perspective. The main objective is to catalog available evidence about term premia and to interpret this evidence in light of alternative models of term premia determination.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelo Melino, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory," NBER Working Papers 1828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1828
    Note: ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1828.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1983. "Excess Volatility in the Financial Markets: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 929-956, December.
    2. Shea, Gary S., 1984. "Pitfalls in Smoothing Interest Rate Term Structure Data: Equilibrium Models and Spline Approximations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 253-269, September.
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1978. "Efficient-Markets Theory: Implications for Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 707-752.
    4. F. A. Lutz, 1940. "The Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(1), pages 36-63.
    5. Grossman, S J & Melino, Angelo & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Estimating the Continuous-Time Consumption-Based Asset-Pricing Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(3), pages 315-327, July.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    7. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-799, September.
    8. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    9. J. E. Stiglitz, 1970. "A Consumption-Oriented Theory of the Demand for Financial Assets and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 321-351.
    10. McCulloch, J Huston, 1971. "Measuring the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(1), pages 19-31, January.
    11. Franco Modigliani & Richard Sutch, 1967. "Debt Management and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis of Recent Experience," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 569-569.
    12. Pesando, James E., 1981. "On forecasting interest rates : An efficient markets perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 305-318.
    13. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
    14. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1984. "A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 44-48, May.
    15. Michael Rothschild, 1985. "Asset Pricing Theories," NBER Technical Working Papers 0044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February.
    17. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    18. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    19. McCallum, John S, 1975. "The Expected Holding Period Return, Uncertainty and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 307-323, May.
    20. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    21. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    22. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1979. "Interest Rate Expectations versus Forward Rates: Evidence from an Expectations Survey," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(4), pages 965-973, September.
    23. L. G. Telser, 1967. "A Critique of Some Recent Empirical Research on the Explanation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 546-546.
    24. Chen, Nai-fu, 1983. "Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1393-1414, December.
    25. Startz, Richard, 1982. "Do forecast errors or term premia really make the difference between long and short rates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 323-329, November.
    26. Dobson, Steven W & Sutch, Richard C & Vanderford, David E, 1976. "An Evaluation of Alternative Empirical Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1035-1065, September.
    27. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Effect of Federal Debt-Management Policy on Corporate Bond and Equity Yields," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 97(4), pages 645-668.
    28. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722, Elsevier.
    2. Andrea J. Heuson, 1988. "The Term Premia Relationship Implicit In The Term Structure Of Treasury Bills," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(1), pages 13-20, March.
    3. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
    4. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    6. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    7. Munk, Claus, 2015. "Financial Asset Pricing Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716457.
    8. Georges Prat, 1992. "Anticipations, prime de terme et maturité du titre long : que nous enseignent les données séculaires sur la structure des taux d'intérêt ? États-Unis de 1873 à 1975," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(6), pages 1037-1070.
    9. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando melo & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, 2002. "Estimación de la Estructura a Plazo de las Tasas de Interés en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 196, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2010. "Choix de portefeuille: comparaison des différentes stratégies [Portfolio selection: comparison of different strategies]," MPRA Paper 82946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2010.
    11. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Zakaria, Muhammad & Raza, Naveed, 2014. "Sensitivity Analysis of CAPM Estimates: Data Frequency and Time Frame," MPRA Paper 60110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1325-1360, August.
    13. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    14. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "The Effect of Shifting Wealth Ownership on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 0239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Zdeněk Dvorný, 2004. "Efficiency of the Secondary T-Bill Market," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(1), pages 17-25.
    17. Leiderman, Leonardo & Blejer, Mario I., 1983. "New Evidence on the Rational Expectations Theory of the Term Structure: The Case of Argentine Interest Rates," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275370, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-366, July.
    19. Pesando, James E., 1981. "On forecasting interest rates : An efficient markets perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 305-318.
    20. Haim Levy & Enrico G. De Giorgi & Thorsten Hens, 2012. "Two Paradigms and Nobel Prizes in Economics: a Contradiction or Coexistence?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(2), pages 163-182, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1828. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.