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Interest Rate Expectations versus Forward Rates: Evidence from an Expectations Survey

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  • Friedman, Benjamin M

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  • Friedman, Benjamin M, 1979. "Interest Rate Expectations versus Forward Rates: Evidence from an Expectations Survey," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(4), pages 965-973, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:34:y:1979:i:4:p:965-73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rockwell, Charles S., 1967. "Normal Backwardation, Forecasting, and the Return to Commodity Futures Traders," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute.
    2. Rubinstein, Mark, 1975. "Securities Market Efficiency in an Arrow-Debreu Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 812-824, December.
    3. Telser, Lester G., 1967. "The Supply of Speculative Services in Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Georges Prat, 1992. "Anticipations, prime de terme et maturité du titre long : que nous enseignent les données séculaires sur la structure des taux d'intérêt ? États-Unis de 1873 à 1975," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(6), pages 1037-1070.
    3. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1990. "Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Struct," NBER Working Papers 3451, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2017.
    5. Sohrab Rafiq, 2015. "How Important are Debt and Growth Expectations for Interest Rates?," IMF Working Papers 15/94, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
    7. Melino, Angelo, 1988. " The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(4), pages 335-366.
    8. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2011. "Time-variation in term premia: International survey-based evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 605-622, June.
    9. Timothy Q. Cook & Thomas A. Lawler, 1983. "The behavior of the spread between Treasury bill rates and private money market rates since 1978," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Nov, pages 3-15.
    10. Adrian W. Throop, 1981. "Interest rate forecasts and market efficiency," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Spr, pages 29-43.
    11. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    12. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Time Variation in Term Premia: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 4959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    14. Froot, Kenneth A, 1989. " New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 283-305, June.
    15. Timothy Q. Cook & Thomas A. Lawler, 1983. "The behavior of the spread between Treasury bill rates and private money market rates since 1978," Working Paper 83-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    16. David S. Jones & V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Rational Expectations, the Expectations Hypothesis, and Treasury Bill Yields: An Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 0869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Richard Deaves, 1996. "Forecasting Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 615-634, August.
    18. Mark A. Hooker, 1996. "Maturity structure of term premia with time-varying expected returns," Working Papers 96-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    19. Timothy Q. Cook & Thomas A. Lawler & Timothy D. Rowe, 1986. "Treasury bill versus private money market yield curves," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jul, pages 3-12.
    20. Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October.
    21. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    22. Anonymous, 1993. "Expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 56, December.
    23. Michael Callaghan, 2017. "Is the market always right? Improving federal funds rate forecasts by adjusting for the term premium," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2017/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    24. Nourzad, Farrokh & Scott Grennier, R., 1995. "Cointegration analysis of the expectations theory of the term structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 281-292, August.
    25. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2008. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 438-448, December.

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