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Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve

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  • Timothy Q. Cook
  • Thomas K. Hahn

Abstract

An examination of the relationship between yield and maturity in the money market. The expectations theory suggests that the yield curve should be a good predictor of future spot interest rates. A substantial body of research in recent years has tested this implication of the theory and discussed possible reasons for the lack of support for the theory from these tests. This paper provides a review of this literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Q. Cook & Thomas K. Hahn, 1990. "Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 76(Sep), pages 3-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1990:i:sep:p:3-26:n:v.76no.5
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
    2. Kuo, Shew-Huei & Enders, Walter, 2004. "The term structure of Japanese interest rates:: The equilibrium spread with asymmetric dynamics," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 84-98, March.
    3. Downing, Chris & Oliner, Stephen, 2007. "The term structure of commercial paper rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 59-86, January.
    4. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    5. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2021. "Testing for UIP: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9027, CESifo.
    6. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht, 2006. "The Impact of ECB Communication on Financial Market Expectations," KOF Working papers 06-135, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    7. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Forward interest rate premium and asymmetric adjustment: Evidence from 16 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 258-273, April.
    8. Vladimír Pikora, 2007. "Vliv zveřejněných informací na výnosovou křivku [The impact of fresh releases on the yield curve]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(6), pages 809-828.
    9. Sagi Akron, 2016. "Business cycles and the expectations of short-term central bank rates in light of Construal Level Theory," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 171-187, August.
    10. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    11. Nourzad, Farrokh & Scott Grennier, R., 1995. "Cointegration analysis of the expectations theory of the term structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 281-292, August.
    12. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2022. "Testing for UIP-Type Relationships: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 705-749, September.
    13. Michael Gordon, 2003. "Estimates of time-varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Karel Brůna, 2006. "Glenn Rudebusch's View on the Targeting of Short-Term Interest Rates [Cílování krátkodobých úrokových sazeb pohledem Glenna Rudebusche]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(1), pages 163-169.
    15. Sundell, Paul & Denbaly, Mark, 1992. "Modeling Long-Term Government Bond Yields: An Efficient Market Approach," Staff Reports 278623, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    16. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
    18. Madura, J. & Wiley, M. K. & Zarruk, E. R., 1998. "Cointegration of term structure premiums across countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 393-412, November.
    19. Michael Dotsey & Christopher Otrok, 1995. "The rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure, monetary policy, and time-varying term premia," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 65-81.
    20. Musti, Silvana & D'Ecclesia, Rita Laura, 2008. "Term structure of interest rates and the expectation hypothesis: The euro area," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1596-1606, March.
    21. Joe Lange & Brian P. Sack & William C. Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Iichiro Uesugi & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2003. "On the Relationship Between the Very Short Forward and the Spot Interest Rate," Discussion papers 03013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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