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Option-Implied Measures of Equity Risk

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  • Bo-Young Chang
  • Peter Christoffersen
  • Kris Jacobs
  • Gregory Vainberg

Abstract

Equity risk measured by beta is of great interest to both academics and practitioners. Existing estimates of beta use historical returns. Many studies have found option-implied volatility to be a strong predictor of future realized volatility. We find that option-implied volatility and skewness are also good predictors of future realized beta. Motivated by this finding, we establish a set of assumptions needed to construct a beta estimate from option-implied return moments using equity and index options. This beta can be computed using only option data on a single day. It is therefore potentially able to reflect sudden changes in the structure of the underlying company. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo-Young Chang & Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Gregory Vainberg, 2011. "Option-Implied Measures of Equity Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(2), pages 385-428.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:16:y:2011:i:2:p:385-428
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    Cited by:

    1. Xilong Chen & Eric Ghysels, 2011. "News--Good or Bad--and Its Impact on Volatility Predictions over Multiple Horizons," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 46-81, October.
    2. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "The Term Structure of Systematic and Idiosyncratic Risk," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-618, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. repec:kap:revdev:v:20:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11147-016-9127-x is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Peter Christoffersen & Xuhui (Nick) Pan, 2014. "Equity Portfolio Management Using Option Price Information," CREATES Research Papers 2015-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Kumiega, Andrew & Neururer, Thaddeus & Van Vliet, Ben, 2011. "Independent component analysis for realized volatility: Analysis of the stock market crash of 2008," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 292-302, June.
    6. Brinkmann, Felix & Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf, 2014. "Forward-looking measures of higher-order dependencies with an application to portfolio selection," CFR Working Papers 13-08 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf & Saßning, Sven, 2011. "Portfolio optimization using forward-looking information," CFR Working Papers 11-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    8. Martin, Ian & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "What is the Expected Return on a Stock?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "How to Estimate Beta?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-617, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    10. Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf & Saßning, Sven, 2014. "Portfolio optimization using forward-looking information," CFR Working Papers 11-10 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    11. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
    12. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2015. "Learning to smile: Can rational learning explain predictable dynamics in the implied volatility surface?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-37.
    13. Alexandros Kostakis & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & George Skiadopoulos, 2011. "Market Timing with Option-Implied Distributions: A Forward-Looking Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1231-1249, July.
    14. Prokopczuk, Marcel & Tharann, Björn & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2017. "Predicting the Equity Market with Option Implied Variables," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-619, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    15. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Assessment of Density Forecast for Energy Commodities in Post-Financialization Era," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    16. Brinkmann, Felix & Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf, 2013. "Forward-looking measures of higher-order dependencies with an application to portfolio selection," CFR Working Papers 13-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    17. Baule, Rainer & Korn, Olaf & Saßning, Sven, 2013. "Which beta is best? On the information content of option-implied betas," CFR Working Papers 13-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    18. Peter Christoffersen & Mathieu Fournier & Kris Jacobs, 2013. "The Factor Structure in Equity Options," CREATES Research Papers 2013-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    19. Brinkmann, Felix & Korn, Olaf, 2014. "Risk-adjusted option-implied moments," CFR Working Papers 14-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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