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The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier

Author

Listed:
  • Mario di Serio
  • Matteo Fragetta
  • Mr. Giovanni Melina

Abstract

We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but the difference between multipliers in the negative and positive r-g regimes differs systematically from zero with very high probability. Over the medium run (5 years), median cumulated multipliers range between 1.22 and 1.77 when r-g is negative, and between 0.51 and 1.26 when r-g is positive. We show that the results are not driven by the state of the business cycle, the monetary policy stance, or the level of government debt, and that the multiplier is inversely correlated with r-g. The calculations are based on the estimates of a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2021. "The Impact of r-g on the Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier," IMF Working Papers 2021/039, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/039
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    Cited by:

    1. Saccone, Donatella & Posta, Pompeo Della & Marelli, Enrico & Signorelli, Marcello, 2022. "Public investment multipliers by functions of government: An empirical analysis for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-545.
    2. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "Public debt and r-g risks in advanced economies: Eurozone versus stand-alone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Frangiamore, Francesco & Matarrese, Marco Maria, 2025. "Government spending multipliers and financial fragility in Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Stefano Di Bucchianico & Mario di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2025. "Time-Varying Impacts of Government Spending on CO2 Emissions," IMF Working Papers 2025/132, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2024. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(6), pages 1342-1372, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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