IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jqe/jqenew/v8y2010i1p105-117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Energy Spot Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chin Wen Cheong

    () (Research Centre of Mathematical Sciences, Multimedia University)

Abstract

This study tests the random walk hypothesis in the spot prices of the petroleum products markets. Under the variance ratio test, a less restrictive random walk process namely the martingale process is examined over the period 1998-2008. The variance ratio methodology is capable of providing information regarding the linearity of multi-period variances, serial correlation as well as possible conditional heteroscedastic effect in the selected spot markets. Due to the long spanning daily data, CUSUM and Andrews tests of structural change are conducted to avoid any possible misleading statistical inferences caused by the unstable parameter in the spot markets. Our empirical findings can be summarized as follows: (1) All the energy markets reject the independent and identically distributed random walk; (2) The WTI crude oil spot prices evidence the presence of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic increments; (3) The Brent crude oil and New York Harbour conventional gasoline spot prices provide strong evidence of conditional heteroscedastic increments martingale process. As a conclusion, although the energy resources returns are martingales, the heteroscedastic increments can still be used to measure the market risk and to earn a risk-adjusted abnormal return in the energy spot markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chin Wen Cheong, 2010. "A Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Energy Spot Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 105-117, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:jqe:jqenew:v:8:y:2010:i:1:p:105-117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.jqe.co.in/journals/JQE_v8_n1_2010_p7.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Apostolos Serletis & Ricardo Rangel-Ruiz, 2007. "Testing for Common Features in North American Energy Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 14, pages 172-187 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Carlos Coimbra & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(2), pages 87-106, June.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "A panel cointegration analysis of the demand for oil in the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6258-6265, December.
    4. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    5. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
    6. Lee, Junsoo & List, John A. & Strazicich, Mark C., 2006. "Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, May.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
    8. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    9. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
    10. Kaufmann, Robert K. & Laskowski, Cheryl, 2005. "Causes for an asymmetric relation between the price of crude oil and refined petroleum products," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1587-1596, August.
    11. Askari, Hossein & Krichene, Noureddine, 2008. "Oil price dynamics (2002-2006)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2134-2153, September.
    12. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
    13. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    14. Postali, Fernando A.S. & Picchetti, Paulo, 2006. "Geometric Brownian Motion and structural breaks in oil prices: A quantitative analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 506-522, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    spot markets; martingale process; variance ratio test;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jqe:jqenew:v:8:y:2010:i:1:p:105-117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (D. M. Nachane) or (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/tiesoea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.