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Conditional Dependence in Precious Metal Prices

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  • Akgiray, Vedat, et al

Abstract

This study investigates the time-series properties of gold and silver spot prices. Both precious metal price series are found to exhibit time dependence and pronounced generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) effects. Splitting the data into similar economic subperiods provides superior explanation of these effects because of the observed long-run nonconstancy of the unconditional variance. Further, the power exponential distribution, as opposed to the Student-t, is found to portray accurately the thick-tailed conditional variance that remains after the GARCH effects are removed. These findings imply that constant variance pricing models are inappropriate for securities that are based on precious metal prices. Coauthors are G. Geoffrey Booth, John J. Hatem, and Chowdhury Mustafa. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Akgiray, Vedat, et al, 1991. "Conditional Dependence in Precious Metal Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 367-386, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:26:y:1991:i:3:p:367-86
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Pierre Fernández Prada Saucedo & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2020. "Modeling the Volatility of Returns on Commodities: An Application and Empirical Comparison of GARCH and SV Models," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2020-484, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    2. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien Mcmahon, 2008. "Forecasting commodity prices: GARCH, jumps, and mean reversion," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 279-291.
    3. Andrew Maree & Peter Card & Paul Kidman, 2017. "Heavy-tailed distribution, GARCH models and the silver returns," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 7(2), pages 1351-1351.
    4. Charlot, Philippe & Marimoutou, Vêlayoudom, 2014. "On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 456-467.
    5. Ulusoy, Veysel & Onbirler, Özgür Ünal, 2017. "Marginal speculation and hedging in commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 269-282.
    6. Blose, Laurence E., 1996. "Gold price risk and the returns on gold mutual funds," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 499-513, December.
    7. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "A study on the Price Behavior of Base Metals traded in India," MPRA Paper 47028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Cochran, Steven J. & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2012. "Volatility persistence in metal returns: A FIGARCH approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 287-305.
    9. E.M. Afsal & Mohammad Imdadul Haque, 2016. "Market Interactions in Gold and Stock Markets: Evidences from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1025-1034.
    10. Sangram K. Jena, 2016. "Sequential Information Arrival Hypothesis: More Evidence from the Indian Derivatives Market," Vision, , vol. 20(2), pages 101-110, June.
    11. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2011. "Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 409-416, January.
    12. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
    13. Ufuk Çelik & Çağatay Başarır, 2017. "The Prediction of Precious Metal Prices via Artificial Neural Network by Using RapidMiner," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 5(1), pages 45-54, June.
    14. Nelson Areal & Benilde Oliveira & Raquel Sampaio, 2015. "When times get tough, gold is golden," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(6), pages 507-526, April.
    15. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2016. "Impact of Global Financial Crisis and Implied Volatility in the Equity Market on Gold Futures Traded on Multi Commodity Exchange, India," MPRA Paper 72966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Sangram Keshari Jena & Ashutosh Dash, 2015. "Is call auction efficient for better price discovery?," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(8), pages 102-113, August.
    17. Chen, An-Sing & Leung, Mark T., 1998. "Stochastic properties and predictability of intraday Taiwan exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 207-220.
    18. Andrew Urquhart, 2017. "How predictable are precious metal returns?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(14), pages 1390-1413, November.
    19. Abdullah Alqahtani, 2019. "Do Global Financial, Oil and Gold Volatility Shocks Affect the GCC Stock Markets?," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 157-175, November.
    20. Escribano, Álvaro & Granger, C.W.J. (Clive William John), 1995. "Investigating the relationship between gold and silver prices," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 4517, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    21. A. Khalifa & S. Hammoudeh & E. Otranto & S. Ramchander, 2012. "Volatility Transmission across Currency, Commodity and Equity Markets under Multi-Chain Regime Switching: Implications for Hedging and Portfolio Allocation," Working Paper CRENoS 201214, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    22. Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2005. "Cross-market linkages between U.S. and Japanese precious metals futures trading," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 107-124, April.
    23. Khalifa, Ahmed A.A. & Otranto, Edoardo & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2016. "Volatility transmission across currencies and commodities with US uncertainty measures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 63-83.
    24. Ahmed A. A. Khalifa & Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander, 2011. "Return distributions and volatility forecasting in metal futures markets: Evidence from gold, silver, and copper," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 55-80, January.

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