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The Prediction of Precious Metal Prices via Artificial Neural Network by Using RapidMiner

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  • Ufuk Çelik
  • Çağatay Başarır

Abstract

In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network study has been implemented to forecast the prediction of precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices by using RapidMiner data mining software. The five performance measures; root mean squared error, absolute error, relative error, Spearman's Rho and Kendall’s Tau are utilized to evaluate artificial neural network model. This study concentrates on data which includes gold, silver, palladium, platinum, Brent Petrol, natural gas prices, 30 years’ bond, 10 years’ bond, 5 years’ bond, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, FTSE100, DAX, CAC40, SMI, NIKKEI, HANH, SENG and Euro/USD within the period of 4th of January 2010 to 14th of December 2015. The prices on the last quarter of 2015 is used for forecasting and validation. The results show that error rates are accurate in order to foresee the market trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Ufuk Çelik & Çağatay Başarır, 2017. "The Prediction of Precious Metal Prices via Artificial Neural Network by Using RapidMiner," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 5(1), pages 45-54, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:anm:alpnmr:v:5:y:2017:i:1:p:45-54
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.290381
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    2. Warut Pannakkong & Thanyaporn Harncharnchai & Jirachai Buddhakulsomsiri, 2022. "Forecasting Daily Electricity Consumption in Thailand Using Regression, Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Hybrid Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Multilayer-Perceptron; Neural Networks; Time Series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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