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A Neural Network Model for Time-Series Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Morariu, Nicolae

    (“Stefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Economic Science and Public Administration Faculty)

  • Iancu, Eugenia

    (“Stefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Economic Science and Public Administration Faculty)

  • Vlad, Sorin

    (“Stefan cel Mare” University of Suceava, Economic Science and Public Administration Faculty)

Abstract

The paper presents some aspects regarding the use of pattern recognition techniques and neural networks for the activity evolution diagnostication and prediction by means of a set of indicators. Starting from the indicators set there is defined a measure on the patterns set, measure representing a scalar value that characterizes the activity analyzed at each time moment. A pattern is defined by the values of the indicators set at a given time. Over the classes set obtained by means of the classification and recognition techniques is defined a relation that allows the representation of the evolution from negative evolution towards positive evolution. For the diagnostication and prediction the following tools are used: pattern recognition and multilayer perceptron. The paper also presents the REFORME software written by the authors and the results of the experiment obtained with this software for macroeconomic diagnostication and prediction during the years 2003-2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Morariu, Nicolae & Iancu, Eugenia & Vlad, Sorin, 2009. "A Neural Network Model for Time-Series Forecasting," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 213-223, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2009:i:4:p:213-223
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Korol, Tomasz & Korodi, Adrian, 2011. "An Evaluation of Effectiveness of Fuzzy Logic Model in Predicting the Business Bankruptcy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 92-107, September.
    2. Ufuk Çelik & Çağatay Başarır, 2017. "The Prediction of Precious Metal Prices via Artificial Neural Network by Using RapidMiner," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 5(1), pages 45-54, June.
    3. Chih-Chung Yang & Yungho Leu & Chien-Pang Lee, 2014. "A Dynamic Weighted Distancedbased Fuzzy Time Series Neural Network with Bootstrap Model for Option Price Forecasting," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 115-129, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    time-series; pattern recognition; neural networks; multilayer perceptron; diagnostication; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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