IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v22y2016i4p685-698.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The economic dimension of climate change impacts on tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Pintassilgo

    (University of Algarve, Portugal)

  • Jaume Rosselló

    (University of the Balearic Islands, Spain)

  • Maria Santana-Gallego

    (University of the Balearic Islands, Spain)

  • Elisabeth Valle

    (University of the Balearic Islands, Spain)

Abstract

Climate variables such as temperature and precipitation play a crucial role on tourism flows worldwide. This places tourism at the forefront of the economic sectors to be affected by climate change. In this article, we address the impacts of climate change on the arrivals of inbound tourists to Portugal, a south European country where tourism is a core economic sector. The economic dimension of the impacts, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, is then assessed. This is achieved by combining a world gravity model of tourism flows with an input–output model. The results show that under standard climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Portugal will experience a significant increase in temperature leading to a decrease of inbound tourism arrivals between 2.5% and 5.2%. This decrease in tourist arrivals is expected to reduce Portuguese GDP between 0.19% and 0.40%.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Pintassilgo & Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego & Elisabeth Valle, 2016. "The economic dimension of climate change impacts on tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(4), pages 685-698, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:4:p:685-698
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816616654242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1354816616654242
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1354816616654242?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    2. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801.
    3. Fourie, Johan & Santana-Gallego, María, 2011. "The impact of mega-sport events on tourist arrivals," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1364-1370.
    4. Christoph Vietze, 2012. "Cultural Effects on Inbound Tourism into the USA: A Gravity Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 121-138, February.
    5. Teresa Guardia Gálvez & Juan Muro Romero & María Jesús Such Devesa, 2014. "Measuring and Analysing Domestic Tourism: The Importance of an Origin and Destination Matrix," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(3), pages 451-472, June.
    6. Poonam Munjal, 2013. "Measuring the Economic Impact of the Tourism Industry in India Using the Tourism Satellite Account and Input—Output Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 1345-1359, December.
    7. Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2006. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 92-121, April.
    8. María Santana-Gallego & Francisco J. Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge V. Pérez-Rodríguez, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 25-43, March.
    9. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    10. Anabela Carvalho & Luísa Schmidt & Filipe Duarte Santos & Ana Delicado, 2014. "Climate change research and policy in Portugal," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 199-217, March.
    11. Davide Provenzano, 2015. "A Dynamic Analysis of Tourism Determinants in Sicily," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(3), pages 441-454, June.
    12. Yair Eilat & Liran Einav, 2004. "Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(12), pages 1315-1327.
    13. Bhoj Raj Khanal & Christopher Gan & Susanne Becken, 2014. "Tourism Inter-Industry Linkages in the Lao PDR Economy: An Input—Output Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 171-194, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angeliki N. Menegaki & Nicholas Tsounis & George M. Agiomirgianakis, 2022. "The economic impact of climate change (CC) on the Greek economy," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 8145-8161, June.
    2. Vitor Rodrigues & Celeste Eusébio & Zélia Breda, 2023. "Enhancing sustainable development through tourism digitalisation: a systematic literature review," Information Technology & Tourism, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 13-45, March.
    3. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Hassani, Hossein, 2022. "‘Modelling’ UK tourism demand using fashion retail sales," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Ghodsi, Zara & Ghodsi, Mansi & Heravi, Saeed & Hassani, Hossein, 2017. "Cross country relations in European tourist arrivals," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 151-168.
    5. Xiaopeng Si & Zi Tang, 2024. "Assessment of low-carbon tourism development from multi-aspect analysis: A case study of the Yellow River Basin, China," Papers 2402.11579, arXiv.org.
    6. Manrique-de-Lara-Peñate, Casiano & Santana Gallego, María & Valle, Elisabeth Valle, 2022. "The economic impact of global uncertainty and security threats on international tourism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.
    8. Neuza Ribeiro & Daniel Roque Gomes & Eduardo Ortega & Gabriela Pedro Gomes & Ana Suzete Semedo, 2022. "The Impact of Green HRM on Employees’ Eco-Friendly Behavior: The Mediator Role of Organizational Identification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-13, March.
    9. Xueying Huang & Yuanjun Han & Xuhong Gong & Xiangyan Liu, 2020. "Does the belt and road initiative stimulate China’s inbound tourist market? An empirical study using the gravity model with a DID method," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(2), pages 299-323, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tekleselassie, Tsegay Gebrekidan, 2016. "Three essays on the impact of institutions and policies on socio-economic outcomes," Economics PhD Theses 1316, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Morley, Clive & Rosselló, Jaume & Santana-Gallego, Maria, 2014. "Gravity models for tourism demand: theory and use," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Lizhi Xu & Shouyang Wang & Jingjing Li & Ling Tang & Yanmin Shao, 2019. "Modelling international tourism flows to China: A panel data analysis with the gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(7), pages 1047-1069, November.
    4. Andrea Saayman & Paolo Figini & Silvio Cassella, 2016. "The influence of formal trade agreements and informal economic cooperation on international tourism flows," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1274-1300, December.
    5. Jaume Roselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2012. "Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios," DEA Working Papers 52, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    6. Vincent Dropsy & Christian Montet & Bernard Poirine, 2020. "Tourism, insularity, and remoteness: A gravity-based approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(5), pages 792-808, August.
    7. María Santana-Gallego & Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez, 2016. "The euro effect: Tourism creation, tourism diversion and tourism potential within the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 17(1), pages 46-68, March.
    8. Fourie, Johan & Santana-Gallego, María, 2011. "The impact of mega-sport events on tourist arrivals," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1364-1370.
    9. De Vita, Glauco, 2014. "The long-run impact of exchange rate regimes on international tourism flows," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 226-233.
    10. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2022. "Gravity models for tourism demand modeling: Empirical review and outlook," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1358-1409, December.
    11. Fourie, Johan & Santana-Gallego, María, 2013. "Ethnic reunion and cultural affinity," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 411-420.
    12. Davide Provenzano, 2020. "The migration–tourism nexus in the EU28," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1374-1393, December.
    13. Roberto Patuelli & Maurizio Mussoni & Guido Candela, 2016. "The Effects of World Heritage Sites on Domestic Tourism: A Spatial Interaction Model for Italy," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roberto Patuelli & Giuseppe Arbia (ed.), Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling, chapter 0, pages 281-315, Springer.
    14. Johan Fourie & Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2015. "Religion, Religious Diversity and Tourism," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 51-64, February.
    15. Juan Gabriel Brida & María Noel González & Bibiana Lanzilotta, 2017. "Análisis De Los Determinantes Del Turismo Interno En Uruguay," Revista de Estudios Regionales, Universidades Públicas de Andalucía, vol. 1, pages 43-78.
    16. Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2014. "Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 119-132, May.
    17. Johan Fourie & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2017. "The Invisible Hand of Thierry Henry," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(7), pages 750-766, October.
    18. Christopher Vierhaus, 2019. "The international tourism effect of hosting the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(7), pages 1009-1028, November.
    19. Xueying Huang & Yuanjun Han & Xuhong Gong & Xiangyan Liu, 2020. "Does the belt and road initiative stimulate China’s inbound tourist market? An empirical study using the gravity model with a DID method," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(2), pages 299-323, March.
    20. Hildegunn K. Nordås & Dorothée Rouzet, 2017. "The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Trade Flows," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1155-1183, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:4:p:685-698. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.