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Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios

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  • Jaume Rosselló

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  • Maria Santana-Gallego

Abstract

This paper investigates how the role of climate in tourist destination choice has changed over the last 15 years. To this end, a demand model for international tourism is estimated, including the main classic determinants but allowing a time-varying climatic sensitivity of tourists. Moreover, a complete database considering international tourism movement between 178 countries for the period 1995 to 2010 is used. Results show how turning point temperatures in origin and destination countries have changed over the period of analysis, evidencing a loss of competitiveness for traditional warm destinations. Additionally, using data for the projected growth of Gross Domestic Product per capita and climatic conditions within A2, B1 and B2 scenarios, an updated vision of their expected impact on international tourism flows is assessed, evaluating how climate change would imply a greater loss of attractiveness for traditional warm destinations around the world but would increase attractiveness for high latitude countries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2014. "Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 119-132, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:119-132
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1086-3
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-014-1086-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Galli, Paolo & Fraga, Carla & de Sequeira Santos, Marcio Peixoto, 2016. "Gravitational force exerted by Brazilian tourist destinations on foreign air travelers," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 76-83.
    2. Groizard, José Luis & Marques, Helena & Santana, María, 2014. "Islands in trade: Disentangling distance from border effects," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-46.
    3. Santana-Gallego, María & Ledesma-Rodríguez, Francisco J. & Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V., 2016. "International trade and tourism flows: An extension of the gravity model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 1026-1033.
    4. Salvador Barrios & J. Ibañez, 2015. "Time is of the essence: adaptation of tourism demand to climate change in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 645-660, October.
    5. Cabrer Borrás, Bernanrdi & Rico Belda, Paz & Sancho Pérez, Amparo, 2016. "Los gastos públicos de promoción de los destinos y la demanda turística interior en España/Public Promotional Spending and Domestic Tourism Demand in Spain," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 34, pages 573-596, Agosto.

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