Time is of the Essence: Adaptation of Tourism Demand to Climate Change in Europe
This study analyses the potential impact of climate change on EU tourism demand and provides long-term (2100) scenarios accounting for adaptation in terms of holiday duration. Our long-term projections for tourism demand are based on hedonic valuation of climatic conditions combining hotel price information and travel cost estimations. This approach allows us to analyse together the climatic aspect of recreational demand and its travel cost dimension and thus to draw alternative hypotheses regarding the time dimension of tourism demand. We derive alternative scenarios for adaptation of holiday in terms of holiday frequency and duration. We find that the climate dimension plays a significant (economically and statistically) role in explaining hedonic valuations of tourism services and, as a consequence, its variation in the long-term are likely to affect the relative attractiveness of EU regions for recreational demand. In certain cases, most notably the Southern EU Mediterranean countries climate condition in 2100 could under current economic conditions, lower tourism revenues for up to -0.45% of GDP per year. On the contrary, other areas of the EU, most notably Northern European countries would gain from altered climate conditions, although these gains would be relatively more modest, reaching up to 0.32% of GDP on an annual basis. Overall our results suggest that the change in holiday duration appears to be more beneficial than the change in the frequency of holidays in view of mitigating the cost of climate change for the tourism sector. These two time dimensions of adaptation are likely to be conditioned by broader societal and institutional factors, however.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2014|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Corso Magenta, 63 - 20123 Milan|
Web page: http://www.feem.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981.
"Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Englin, Jeffrey & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1991. "A hedonic travel cost analysis for valuation of multiple components of site quality: The recreation value of forest management," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 275-290, November.
- Jaume Rosselló & Maria Santana-Gallego, 2014. "Recent trends in international tourist climate preferences: a revised picture for climatic change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 119-132, May.
- Mendelsohn, Robert, 1981. "The Choice of Discount Rates for Public Projects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 239-241, March.
- Won Kim, Chong & Phipps, Tim T. & Anselin, Luc, 2003.
"Measuring the benefits of air quality improvement: a spatial hedonic approach,"
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 24-39, January.
- Kim, Chong Won & Phipps, Tim T. & Anselin, Luc, 1998. "Measuring The Benefits Of Air Quality Improvement: A Spatial Hedonic Approach," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20959, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Maddison, David & Bigano, Andrea, 2003. "The amenity value of the Italian climate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 319-332, March.
- Andrea Bigano & Maria Berrittella & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004.
"A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism,"
2004.127, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Maria Berrittella & Andrea Bigano & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism," Working Papers FNU-49, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
- Jaume Roselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2012. "Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios," DEA Working Papers 52, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
- Bas Amelung & Alvaro Moreno, 2012. "Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 83-100, May.
- Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006.
"The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study,"
2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
- Daniel Hellerstein, 1993. "Intertemporal data and travel cost analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(2), pages 193-207, April.
- Kelly C. Bishop & Christopher Timmins, 2011. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Estimating Marginal Willingness to Pay for Differentiated Products Without Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 17611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brown, Gardner M, Jr & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1984. "The Hedonic Travel Cost Method," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 427-33, August.
- Linwood Pendleton & Robert Mendelsohn, 2000. "Estimating Recreation Preferences Using Hedonic Travel Cost and Random Utility Models," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 17(1), pages 89-108, September.
- Cassel, Eric & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1985. "The choice of functional forms for hedonic price equations: Comment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 135-142, September.
- Salvador Barrios & Juan Nicolas Ibañez Rivas, 2013. "Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: an integrated analysis for EU regions," JRC Working Papers JRC80898, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2014.19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.