Climate change scenarios and the evolution of Spanish tourism

The tourism industry, a vital contributor to Spain’s GDP, may face substantial challenges due to the worsening weather conditions as a result of climate change. This study investigates the potential effects of climate change on tourism demand across Spanish provinces up to the year 2100. By analyzing monthly data from the 50 Spanish provinces over a 22-year period (2002–2023), we assess the impact of the current climatic conditions -measured by the Tourism Climatic Index and the Holiday Climate Index- on tourism demand, according to various tourism typologies. Our findings indicate that climatic conditions significantly influence tourism demand, with eastern and southern coastal provinces being the most responsive. We then simulate the effects of future climate change on tourism demand under three emission concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, projecting mean temperature increases of 1.8 °C, 2.8 °C, and 4.8 °C by 2100, respectively). Results reveal that the northern coastal provinces benefit from increasing temperatures, while the southern and eastern regions experience declines in tourism, especially under higher warming scenarios. Seasonal distribution of tourism demand is also expected to shift. Overall, the net effect on the Spanish tourism is negative according to the TCI specification, with manageable impacts under RCP 2.6 and 4.5 (-1.6% and -0.3% in 2100 vs. 2010–2019), but a sizeable impact under RCP 8.5 (-7.1%). The negative impacts are significantly reduced with the implementation of the HCI, due to differences in the index thresholds, reaching variations of -0.14%, 0.3%, and -0.34% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Thus, the study also highlights that the thresholds of climate Indexes, determine the results in a great extent.