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Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II Project

Author

Listed:
  • Ciscar, Juan-Carlos
  • Feyen, Luc
  • Soria, Antonio
  • Lavalle, Carlo
  • Raes, Frank
  • Perry, Miles
  • Nemry, Françoise
  • Demirel, Hande
  • Rozsai, Máté
  • Dosio, Alessandro
  • Donatelli, Marcello
  • Srivastava, Amit Kumar
  • Fumagalli, Davide
  • Niemeyer, Stefan
  • Shrestha, Shailesh
  • Ciaian, Pavel
  • Himics, Mihaly
  • Van Doorslaer, Benjamin
  • Barrios, Salvador
  • Ibáñez, Nicolás
  • Forzieri, Giovanni
  • Rojas, Rodrigo
  • Bianchi, Alessandra
  • Dowling, Paul
  • Camia, Andrea
  • Libertà, Giorgio
  • San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús
  • de Rigo, Daniele
  • Caudullo, Giovanni
  • Barredo, Jose-I.
  • Paci, Daniele
  • Pycroft, Jonathan
  • Saveyn, Bert
  • Van Regemorter, Denise
  • Revesz, Tamas
  • Vandyck, Toon
  • Vrontisi, Zoi
  • Baranzelli, Claudia
  • Vandecasteele, Ine
  • Batista e Silva, Filipe
  • Ibarreta, Dolores

Abstract

The objective of the JRC PESETA II project is to gain insights into the sectoral and regional patterns of climate change impacts in Europe by the end of this century. The study uses a large set of climate model runs and impact categories (ten impacts: agriculture, energy, river floods, droughts, forest fires, transport infrastructure, coasts, tourism, habitat suitability of forest tree species and human health). The project integrates biophysical direct climate impacts into a macroeconomic economic model, which enables the comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). Under the reference simulation the annual total damages would be around €190 billion/year, almost 2% of EU GDP. The geographical distribution of the climate damages is very asymmetric with a clear bias towards the southern European regions. More than half of the overall annual EU damages are estimated to be due to the additional premature mortality (€120 billion). Moving to a 2°C world would reduce annual climate damages by €60 billion, to €120 billion (1.2% of GDP).

Suggested Citation

  • Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Feyen, Luc & Soria, Antonio & Lavalle, Carlo & Raes, Frank & Perry, Miles & Nemry, Françoise & Demirel, Hande & Rozsai, Máté & Dosio, Alessandro & Donatelli, Marcello & Srivastav, 2014. "Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II Project," MPRA Paper 55725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55725
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Ang, Chye Peng & Toper, Bruce & Gambhir, Ajay, 2016. "Financial impacts of UK's energy and climate change policies on commercial and industrial businesses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 273-286.
    3. Aristeidis G. Koutroulis & M. G. Grillakis & I. K. Tsanis & D. Jacob, 2018. "Mapping the vulnerability of European summer tourism under 2 °C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 157-171, November.
    4. Wolfgang Pointner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2019. "Climate change as a risk to financial stability," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 38, pages 30-45.
    5. Pichler, Paul & Sorger, Gerhard, 2018. "Delegating climate policy to a supranational authority: a theoretical assessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 418-440.
    6. Muhammad Abdullah Khalid & Yousaf Ali, 2020. "Economic impact assessment of natural disaster with multi-criteria decision making for interdependent infrastructures," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 7287-7311, December.
    7. Giwa, Adewale & Adeyemi, Idowu & Dindi, Abdallah & Lopez, Celia García-Baños & Lopresto, Catia Giovanna & Curcio, Stefano & Chakraborty, Sudip, 2018. "Techno-economic assessment of the sustainability of an integrated biorefinery from microalgae and Jatropha: A review and case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 239-257.
    8. Stram, Bruce Nels, 2014. "A new strategic plan for a carbon tax," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 519-523.
    9. Yousefi-Sahzabi, Amin & Unlu-Yucesoy, Eda & Sasaki, Kyuro & Yuosefi, Hossein & Widiatmojo, Arif & Sugai, Yuichi, 2017. "Turkish challenges for low-carbon society: Current status, government policies and social acceptance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 596-608.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental economics; greenhouse gas emissions reduction; green tax reform; energy tax; energy-intensive sectors; competitiveness; multi-sectoral; computable general equilibrium model (CGE); scenario-building techniques; climate change impacts and adaptation assessment; data-transformation modelling; integrated modelling; Semantic Array Programming; Relative distance similarity; Europe; Agriculture; Forest; Tourism; Tipping points; Water resources; Coastline; Transport infrastructure; Forest Fires; River floods; Human health; Tree species habitat suitability; Sea level rise; Droughts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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