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Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

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  • Tobias Lung
  • Alessandro Dosio
  • William Becker
  • Carlo Lavalle
  • Laurens Bouwer

Abstract

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options. Copyright European Union 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Lung & Alessandro Dosio & William Becker & Carlo Lavalle & Laurens Bouwer, 2013. "Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 211-227, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:211-227
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0825-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luc Feyen & Rutger Dankers & Katalin Bódis & Peter Salamon & José Barredo, 2012. "Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 47-62, May.
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    1. Marc Stéfanon & Nicolas Martin-StPaul & Paul Leadley & Sophie Bastin & Alessandro Dell’Aquila & Philippe Drobinski & Clemente Gallardo, 2015. "Testing climate models using an impact model: what are the advantages?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 649-661, August.
    2. Hamish Clarke & Andrew J. Pitman & Jatin Kala & Claire Carouge & Vanessa Haverd & Jason P. Evans, 2016. "An investigation of future fuel load and fire weather in Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 591-605, December.
    3. CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos & FEYEN Luc & SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio & LAVALLE Carlo & PERRY Miles & RAES Frank & NEMRY Francoise & DEMIREL Hande & RÓZSAI Máté & DOSIO Alessandro & DONATELLI Marcello & SRI, 2014. "Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II Project," JRC Research Reports JRC87011, Joint Research Centre.
      • Ciscar, Juan-Carlos & Feyen, Luc & Soria, Antonio & Lavalle, Carlo & Raes, Frank & Perry, Miles & Nemry, Françoise & Demirel, Hande & Rozsai, Máté & Dosio, Alessandro & Donatelli, Marcello & Srivastav, 2014. "Climate Impacts in Europe - The JRC PESETA II Project," MPRA Paper 55725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Catrinel COTAE, 2015. "ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS A ND REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS: BRIDGING THE CONCEPTUAL GAP (International Conference "Recent Advances in Economic and Social Research", 13-14 mai 2015, București)," Institute for Economic Forecasting Conference Proceedings 151204, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    5. Alessandro Dosio & Christopher Lennard & Jonathan Spinoni, 2022. "Projections of indices of daily temperature and precipitation based on bias-adjusted CORDEX-Africa regional climate model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-24, January.

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