Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: an integrated analysis for EU regions
The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impact of climate change on EU tourism demand and to provide long-term (2100) scenarios to be used in the general equilibrium GEM-E3 to allow for potential interactions with the rest of the economy. The analysis is based on a bottom-up approach to derive country-wide figures making use of detailed regional data. Our study brings three novel aspects to the existing literature on recreational demand and climate. First, we derive region-specific estimates of the impact of climate change based on tourists flows between European regions taking into account regions' specific characteristics regarding the nature of (and degree of specialisation in) tourism activities and related vulnerability to potential climate change scenarios. Second, our long-term projections for tourism demand are based on hedonic valuation of climatic conditions combining hotel price information and travel cost estimations. Such an approach allows us to consider together the climatic aspect of recreational demand and its travel cost dimension. In doing so we are able to estimate differentiated valuations of climate amenities depending on the distance travelled by tourists by region of origin and destination. This in turn allows us to further differentiate the valuation of climatic conditions depending on the time duration of holidays. Third, based on this travel-cost/holiday duration approach we can derive alternative scenarios for adaptation of holiday demand to potential climate change scenarios combining two dimensions related to adaptation: an institutional dimension, by considering alternative hypotheses regarding the monthly distribution of total tourism demand, and a time dimension by considering alternative scenarios regarding holiday duration. Our main results show that the climate dimension play a significant (economically and statistically) role in explaining hedonic valuations of tourism services and, as a consequence, its variation in the long-term are likely to affect the relative attractiveness of EU regions for recreational demand. In certain cases, most notably the Southern EU Mediterranean countries climate condition in 2100 could under current economic conditions, lower tourism revenues for up to -0.45% of GDP. On the contrary, other areas of the EU, most notably Northern European countries would gain from altered climate conditions, although these gains would be relatively more modest, reaching up to 0.32% of GDP. We also find that adaptation in the duration of holiday rather than on the monthly pattern of holiday could potentially mitigate these losses.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: C/ Inca Garcilaso, s/n 41092 Seville|
Phone: +34 954 48 8318
Fax: +34 954 48 8300
Web page: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ivar Ekeland & James J. Heckman & Lars Nesheim, 2004.
"Identification and Estimation of Hedonic Models,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 60-109, February.
- Ivar Ekeland & James Heckman & Lars Nesheim, 2002. "Identification and estimation of hedonic models," CeMMAP working papers CWP07/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Ivar Ekeland & James J. Heckman & Lars P. Nesheim, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Hedonic Models," NBER Working Papers 9910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ekeland, Ivar & Heckman, James J. & Nesheim, Lars, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Hedonic Models," IZA Discussion Papers 853, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ivar Ekeland & James J. Heckman & Lars Nesheim, 2003. "Identification and Estimation of Hedonic Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 1031, CESifo Group Munich.
- Brown, Gardner M, Jr & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1984. "The Hedonic Travel Cost Method," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 427-433, August.
- Juan-Carlos Ciscar & Antonio Soria & Clare M. Goodess & Ole B. Christensen & Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Marta Moneo & Sonia Quiroga & Luc Feyen & Rutger Dankers & Robert Nicholls & Julie Richards &, 2009. "Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project," JRC Working Papers JRC55391, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
- Bas Amelung & Alvaro Moreno, 2009. "Impacts of climate change in tourism in Europe. PESETA-Tourism study," JRC Working Papers JRC55392, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
- Bas Amelung & Alvaro Moreno, 2012. "Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 83-100, May.
- Kelly C. Bishop & Christopher Timmins, 2011. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Estimating Marginal Willingness to Pay for Differentiated Products Without Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 17611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Englin, Jeffrey & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1991. "A hedonic travel cost analysis for valuation of multiple components of site quality: The recreation value of forest management," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 275-290, November.
- Ivar Ekeland & James J. Heckman & Lars Nesheim, 2002. "Identifying Hedonic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 304-309, May.
- Ivar Ekeland & James Heckman & Lars Nesheim, 2002. "Identifying hedonic models," CeMMAP working papers CWP06/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Cassel, Eric & Mendelsohn, Robert, 1985. "The choice of functional forms for hedonic price equations: Comment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 135-142, September.
- Jaume Roselló Nadal & María Santana Gallego, 2012. "Climate change and global international tourism: An evaluation for different scenarios," DEA Working Papers 52, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
- Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
- Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers 2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Daniel Hellerstein, 1993. "Intertemporal data and travel cost analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(2), pages 193-207, April.
- Won Kim, Chong & Phipps, Tim T. & Anselin, Luc, 2003. "Measuring the benefits of air quality improvement: a spatial hedonic approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 24-39, January.
- Kim, Chong Won & Phipps, Tim T. & Anselin, Luc, 1998. "Measuring The Benefits Of Air Quality Improvement: A Spatial Hedonic Approach," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20959, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Linwood Pendleton & Robert Mendelsohn, 2000. "Estimating Recreation Preferences Using Hedonic Travel Cost and Random Utility Models," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 17(1), pages 89-108, September.
- Mendelsohn, Robert, 1981. "The Choice of Discount Rates for Public Projects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 239-241, March.
- Maddison, David & Bigano, Andrea, 2003. "The amenity value of the Italian climate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 319-332, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)