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Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project

Author

Listed:
  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar

    (European Commission - JRC)

  • Antonio Soria

    (European Commission - JRC)

  • Clare M. Goodess
  • Ole B. Christensen

    (Danish Meteorological Institute)

  • Ana Iglesias

    (Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Polytechnic University of Madrid)

  • Luis Garrote

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Polytechnic University of Madrid)

  • Marta Moneo

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PIK)

  • Sonia Quiroga

    (Department of Statistics, Alcala University)

  • Luc Feyen

    (IES-JRC)

  • Rutger Dankers

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Robert Nicholls

    (School of Civil Engineering & the Environment, University of Southampton)

  • Julie Richards

    (ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd)

  • Francesco Bosello

    (Milan University, FEEM)

  • Roberto Roson

    (CaFoscari University)

  • Bas Amelung

    (ICIS, Maastricht University)

  • Alvaro Moreno

    (ICIS, Maastricht University)

  • Paul Watkiss

    (PWA)

  • Alistair Hunt

    (Metroeconomica)

  • Stephen Pye

    (AEA Technology)

  • Lisa Horrocks

    (AEA Technology)

  • László Szabó
  • Denise van Regemorter

Abstract

The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on vulnerable aspects of Europe. Four market impact categories are considered (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism) and one non-market category (human health). Considering the market impacts, without public adaptation and if the climate of the 2080s occurred today, the EU annual welfare loss would be in the range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate scenario. However, there is large variation across different climate futures, EU regions and impact categories. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and higher sea level rise result in more severe economic damage for the EU. Southern Europe, the British Isles and Central Europe North appear to be the most sensitive regions to climate change. Northern Europe is the only region with net economic benefits, mainly driven by the positive effects in agriculture. Concerning the contribution to the overall effects, coastal systems, agriculture and river flooding are the most important ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan-Carlos Ciscar & Antonio Soria & Clare M. Goodess & Ole B. Christensen & Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Marta Moneo & Sonia Quiroga & Luc Feyen & Rutger Dankers & Robert Nicholls & Julie Richards &, 2009. "Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project," JRC Research Reports JRC55391, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc55391
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC55391
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonid V. Sorokin, 2012. "Weather Modification as a Strategy for Economic Losses Reduction from Natural Disasters in Europe," Book Chapters, in: Paulino Teixeira & António Portugal Duarte & Srdjan Redzepagic & Dejan Eric (ed.), European Integration Process in Western Balkan Countries, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 208-227, Institute of Economic Sciences.
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    4. Paul Watkiss & Lisa Horrocks & Stephen Pye & Alison Searl & Alistair Hunt, 2009. "Impacts of climate change in human health in Europe. PESETA-Human health study," JRC Research Reports JRC55393, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Maria Papathoma-Koehle & Catrin Promper & Roxana Bojariu & Roxana Cica & András Sik & Kinga Perge & Peter László & Erika Balázs Czikora & Alexandru Dumitrescu & Cosmin Turcus & Marius-Victor Birsan & , 2016. "A common methodology for risk assessment and mapping for south-east Europe: an application for heat wave risk in Romania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 89-109, May.
    6. Schlickenrieder, Jeremy & Quiroga, Sonia & Diz, Agustin & Iglesias, Ana, . "Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 11(01), pages 1-24.
    7. Mata, Érika & Kalagasidis, Angela Sasic & Johnsson, Filip, 2018. "Contributions of building retrofitting in five member states to EU targets for energy savings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 759-774.
    8. Rentizelas, Athanasios & Georgakellos, Dimitrios, 2014. "Incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-149.
    9. Ramiro Parrado & Francesco Bosello & Elisa Delpiazzo & Jochen Hinkel & Daniel Lincke & Sally Brown, 2020. "Fiscal effects and the potential implications on economic growth of sea-level rise impacts and coastal zone protection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 283-302, May.
    10. Juan C. Ciscar & Daniele Paci & Lucia Vergano, 2010. "Issues on the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change," Chapters, in: Emilio Cerdá Tena & Xavier Labandeira (ed.), Climate Change Policies, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Heinisch, Katja & Holtemöller, Oliver & Schult, Christoph, 2023. "Stellungnahme "Übergreifende Kostenbetrachtung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels in Schleswig-Holstein"," IWH Policy Notes 1/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    12. Osberghaus, Daniel & Finkel, Elyssa & Pohl, Max, 2010. "Individual adaptation to climate change: The role of information and perceived risk," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-061, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Juha Schweighofer, 2014. "The impact of extreme weather and climate change on inland waterway transport," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(1), pages 23-40, May.
    14. Salvador Barrios & Juan Nicolas Ibañez Rivas, 2013. "Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: an integrated analysis for EU regions," JRC Research Reports JRC80898, Joint Research Centre.
    15. Castellini, Marta & Castelli, Chiara & Gusperti, Camilla & Lupi, Veronica & Vergalli, Sergio, 2025. "Balancing climate policies and economic development in the Mediterranean countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    16. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2015. "Modelling the economic impacts of climate change on global and European agriculture: Review of economic structural approaches," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 9, pages 1-53.
    17. Dudu, Hasan & Cakmak, Erol H., 2014. "An integrated analysis of economywide effects of climate change," WIDER Working Paper Series 106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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