IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sss/wpaper/2017-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using Genuine Savings for Climate Policy Evaluation with an Integrated Assessment Model

Author

Listed:
  • Louis Dupuy

    () (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews)

  • Koji Tokimatsu

    () (Tokyo Institute of Technology)

  • Nick Hanley

    () (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews)

Abstract

Climate policies can have impacts which show up in multiple sectors of the economy and which change consumption levels over time, besides the changes in emissions which such policies bring about. We show how the sustainability indicator Genuine Savings can be endogenised within a general equilibrium model and used a sa criterion for judging the impacts of such policies or growth scenarios. We combine life cycle analytical approaches with a multi-country macroeconomic model which includes the economic costs of emissions from economic activity, and impacts on biodiversity and net primary productivity. The model is used to calculate values for Genuine Savings, where the shadow prices used to measure the value of asset changes is derived from the model structure. Differences in Genuine Savings over different greenhouse emission scenarios are discussed, scenarios which also consider the effects of pricing impacts on other pollutants and on biodiversity, and the effects of changes in population and the rate of growth of productivity. A key result which emerges is the key role of the rate of technological change relative to the population growth rate, if wellbeing is to be sustained over the next 50 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Louis Dupuy & Koji Tokimatsu & Nick Hanley, 2017. "Using Genuine Savings for Climate Policy Evaluation with an Integrated Assessment Model," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2017-07, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:sss:wpaper:2017-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/media/dept-of-geography-and-sustainable-development/pdf-s/DP%202017-07%20Dupuy%20et%20al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, Kirk & Clemens, Michael, 1999. "Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 333-356, May.
    2. Tol, Richard S. J., 2005. "The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2064-2074, November.
    3. Collins, Ross D. & Selin, Noelle E. & de Weck, Olivier L. & Clark, William C., 2017. "Using inclusive wealth for policy evaluation: Application to electricity infrastructure planning in oil-exporting countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 23-34.
    4. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: The Competitive Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 139-152.
    5. Kirk Hamilton & John Hartwick, 2005. "Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 615-621, May.
    6. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Dasgupta, Partha & Goulder, Lawrence H. & Mumford, Kevin J. & Oleson, Kirsten, 2012. "Sustainability and the measurement of wealth," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 317-353, June.
    7. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2004. "Returns to investment in education: a further update," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 111-134.
    8. Koji Tokimatsu & Rintaro Yamaguchi & Masayuki Sato & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio & Kazuhiro Ueta, 2011. "Measuring future dynamics of genuine saving with changes of population and technology: application of an integrated assessment model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 703-725, August.
    9. John Hartwick, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investment of Rents from Exhaustible Resources in a Two Sector Model," Working Paper 281, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    10. Koji Tokimatsu & Rintaro Yamaguchi & Masayuki Sato & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio & Kazuhiro Ueta, 2012. "Measuring sustainable development for the future with climate change mitigation; a case study of applying an integrated assessment model under IPCC SRES scenarios," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 14(6), pages 915-938, December.
    11. Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 860-872, September.
    12. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    13. Nordhaus, William D & Yang, Zili, 1996. "A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 741-765, September.
    14. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    15. Roy Brouwer & Frank Spaninks, 1999. "The Validity of Environmental Benefits Transfer: Further Empirical Testing," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 14(1), pages 95-117, July.
    16. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    17. Pezzey, J.C.V.John C. V., 2004. "One-sided sustainability tests with amenities, and changes in technology, trade and population," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 613-631, July.
    18. Fleurbaey, Marc, 2015. "On sustainability and social welfare," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 34-53.
    19. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
    20. Holmgren, Kristina & Amiri, Shahnaz, 2007. "Internalising external costs of electricity and heat production in a municipal energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5242-5253, October.
    21. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
    22. Joseph Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 123-137.
    23. Lindmark, Magnus & Acar, Sevil, 2013. "Sustainability in the making? A historical estimate of Swedish sustainable and unsustainable development 1850–2000," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 176-187.
    24. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    25. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 171-188.
    26. Buchholz, Wolfgang & Schumacher, Jan, 2010. "Discounting and welfare analysis over time: Choosing the [eta]," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 372-385, September.
    27. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    28. Tokimatsu, Koji & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Global zero emissions scenarios: The role of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage by forested land use," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1899-1906.
    29. Pearce, David W. & Atkinson, Giles D., 1993. "Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of "weak" sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 103-108, October.
    30. Susana Ferreira & Kirk Hamilton & Jeffrey R. Vincent, 2008. "Comprehensive Wealth and Future Consumption: Accounting for Population Growth," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(2), pages 233-248, May.
    31. Eli P. Fenichel & Joshua K. Abbott, 2014. "Natural Capital: From Metaphor to Measurement," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27.
    32. Partha Dasgupta, 2009. "The Welfare Economic Theory of Green National Accounts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 3-38, January.
    33. World Commission on Environment and Development,, 1987. "Our Common Future," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192820808.
    34. Solow, Robert, 2012. "A few comments on ‘Sustainability and the measurement of wealth’," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 354-355, June.
    35. World Bank, 2011. "The Changing Wealth of Nations : Measuring Sustainable Development in the New Millennium," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2252, September.
    36. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
    37. Anil Markandya & Suzette Pedroso-Galinato, 2007. "How substitutable is natural capital?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(1), pages 297-312, May.
    38. Partha Dasgupta, 2008. "Discounting climate change," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 141-169, December.
    39. Rafaj, Peter & Kypreos, Socrates, 2007. "Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 828-843, February.
    40. repec:hrv:hksfac:32696191 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Thomas S. Lontzek & Daiju Narita & Ole Wilms, 2016. "Stochastic Integrated Assessment of Ecosystem Tipping Risk," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 573-598, November.
    42. Richard S. J. Tol, 2009. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 29-51, Spring.
    43. Nguyen, Khanh Q., 2008. "Internalizing externalities into capacity expansion planning: The case of electricity in Vietnam," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 740-746.
    44. Dasgupta, Partha, 2001. "Human Well-Being and the Natural Environment," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199247882.
    45. Martin L. Weitzman, 1997. "Sustainability and Technical Progress," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(1), pages 1-13, March.
    46. Partha Dasgupta & Geoffrey Heal, 1974. "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 3-28.
    47. William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(3), pages 686-702, September.
    48. Ortiz, Ramon Arigoni & Golub, Alexander & Lugovoy, Oleg & Markandya, Anil & Wang, James, 2011. "DICER: A tool for analyzing climate policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 41-49.
    49. Koji Tokimatsu & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio & Kazuhiro Ueta, 2014. "A study on forecasting paths of genuine savings and wealth without and with carbon dioxide constraints: development of shadow price functions," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 723-745, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:spr:minecn:v:30:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-017-0109-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:kap:enreec:v:72:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10640-018-0303-3 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Genuine Savings (GS); integrated assessment model (IAM); lifecycle impact assessment (LCIA); sustainability; policy analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sss:wpaper:2017-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laure Kuhfuss). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/eestauk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.