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Global zero emissions scenarios: The role of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage by forested land use

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  • Tokimatsu, Koji
  • Yasuoka, Rieko
  • Nishio, Masahiro

Abstract

We investigate the prospects of three zero-emission scenarios for achieving the target of limiting global mean temperature rise to 2°C or below, and compare them with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario involving no climate policy intervention. The “2100 zero” emissions scenario requires zero emissions after 2100 until 2150. The “350ppm zero” emissions scenario entails zero emissions in the latter half of this century, which can be achieved by the cumulative emissions constraints of the Wigley–Richels–Edmonds (WRE) 350 from 2010 to 2150. Finally, the “net zero” scenario requires zero cumulative emissions from 2010 to 2150, allowing positive emissions over the coming several decades that would be balanced-out by negative emissions in the latter half of the century. The role of biomass energy carbon capture and storage (BECCS) with forested land is also assessed with these scenarios. The results indicate that the 2°C target can be achieved in the “net zero” scenario, while the “350ppm zero” scenario would result in a temperature rise of 2.4°C. The “2100 zero” scenario achieved a 4.1°C increase, while the BAU reached about 5.2°C. BECCS contributed to achieving zero-emission requirements while providing a limited contribution to energy supply. The findings indicate substantial future challenges for the management of forested land.

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  • Tokimatsu, Koji & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Global zero emissions scenarios: The role of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage by forested land use," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1899-1906.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:185:y:2017:i:p2:p:1899-1906
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.11.077
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    11. Hafezi, Reza & Wood, David A. & Akhavan, Amir Naser & Pakseresht, Saeed, 2020. "Iran in the emerging global natural gas market: A scenario-based competitive analysis and policy assessment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
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    13. Zhigang Li & Jialong Zhong & Zishu Sun & Wunian Yang, 2017. "Spatial Pattern of Carbon Sequestration and Urban Sustainability: Analysis of Land-Use and Carbon Emission in Guang’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-24, October.
    14. Mostafa, Mohamed E. & Hu, Song & Wang, Yi & Su, Sheng & Hu, Xun & Elsayed, Saad A. & Xiang, Jun, 2019. "The significance of pelletization operating conditions: An analysis of physical and mechanical characteristics as well as energy consumption of biomass pellets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 332-348.
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    16. Vassilis Stavrakas & Niki-Artemis Spyridaki & Alexandros Flamos, 2018. "Striving towards the Deployment of Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS): A Review of Research Priorities and Assessment Needs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-27, June.
    17. Silva Herran, Diego & Tachiiri, Kaoru & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2019. "Global energy system transformations in mitigation scenarios considering climate uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 119-131.
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    19. Reyhaneh Banihabib & Mohsen Assadi, 2022. "The Role of Micro Gas Turbines in Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-22, October.

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