China׳s energy systems transformation and emissions peak

From 1990 to 2013, China׳s energy intensity (EI) declined from 1.587 (oil equivalent kg/2005$) to 0.63 (kg oil equivalent/$), while the share of clean energy (CES) rose from 4.18% to 9.61%, which played an important role in emissions reduction. The economic growth in increasing emissions exceeded the technical progress and energy structural upgrades in reducing emissions, Chinese emissions have shown a steeply rising trend since 1990. Three variables, economic growth, EI, and multiple emission intensity (MI) representing energy utilization per unit, were set to the combinations of high, medium and low levels. The annual total emissions index (TEMI) was calculated for each combination. If gross domestic product (GDP) keep growing at 7.6% per year (high level), the results show that TEMI will not have peaked by the end of 2035. If GDP growth decelerates at an annual rate of 0.05% (medium level), TEMI will exhibit three emissions peaks in 2032 and 2034. By then, the CO2 peak will have reached 11,155–13205.6 million tons, which is 9.01–29.05% higher than the 2013 baseline. Other emissions will be 5–30% higher than the 2013 baseline. The range of EI was 0.219–0.26 (kg oil equivalent/$), and the range of CES was 17.75–20.54%. More peaks will appear before 2035 if GDP growth decelerates at an annual rate of 0.1% (low level). The emissions-reducing effect of technical progress (declines in EI) is far greater than that of structural change. Comparing with developed countries, China has a great potential for energy conservation and emissions reduction. China will achieve peak emissions by 2035 with actively creating the conditions for transforming its energy system.