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Iran in the emerging global natural gas market: A scenario-based competitive analysis and policy assessment

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  • Hafezi, Reza
  • Wood, David A.
  • Akhavan, Amir Naser
  • Pakseresht, Saeed

Abstract

Price fluctuations, environmental concerns, technological development, unconventional resources, energy security challenges, and shipping availability are some of the forces that have contributed to energy markets becoming more dynamic and complex in the last decade. This research analyzes the global natural gas market (GNGM) situation for the case of the National Iranian Gas Company. Iran as the owner of the second-largest natural gas proved reserves strives to enhance its market share in the GNGM. Recently, international gas markets are gradually evolving from traditional local/regional markets into a more interconnected GNGM. A comprehensive competitive analysis, Porter's five forces, scenario-based planning model is proposed and developed. It assesses the current status and trends associated with the GNGM applying its findings to provide insights into how Iran might potentially expand its share of the GNGM. The GNGM five-forces-based scenario analysis conducted focuses upon and presents: (1) Rivalry among existing participants; (2) Bargaining power of suppliers; (3) Bargaining power of buyers; (4) Threats from new entrants and (5) Threats from substitutes. The proposed scenario-based competitive analysis reveals three key strategies that should protect Iran's position in the evolving energy markets and promote its future share of the GNGM.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafezi, Reza & Wood, David A. & Akhavan, Amir Naser & Pakseresht, Saeed, 2020. "Iran in the emerging global natural gas market: A scenario-based competitive analysis and policy assessment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:68:y:2020:i:c:s0301420720300349
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101790
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hafezi, Reza & Akhavan, AmirNaser & Pakseresht, Saeed & A. Wood, David, 2021. "Global natural gas demand to 2025: A learning scenario development model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Natalia Iwaszczuk & Jacek Wolak & Aleksander Iwaszczuk, 2021. "Turkmenistan’s Gas Sector Development Scenarios Based on Econometric and SWOT Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    4. Wang, Xiaolin & Qiu, Yangyang & Chen, Jun & Hu, Xiangping, 2022. "Evaluating natural gas supply security in China: An exhaustible resource market equilibrium model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Souhankar, Amirhossein & Mortezaee, Ahmad & Hafezi, Reza, 2023. "Potentials for energy-saving and efficiency capacities in Iran: An interpretive structural model to prioritize future national policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).

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