IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v157y2018icp914-931.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term policy evaluation: Application of a new robust decision framework for Iran's energy exports security

Author

Listed:
  • Alipour, Mohammad
  • Hafezi, Reza
  • Ervural, Bilal
  • Kaviani, Mohamad Amin
  • Kabak, Özgür

Abstract

The objective of this research is to assess long-term energy security policy under uncertain environment. Uncertainty is an integral part of the energy policy analysis in long-term planning, in particular for energy-exporting countries seeking to secure sustainable export revenues. This study proposes a framework to evaluate energy export policy at the strategic level by addressing inherent uncertainties exist in energy-exporting countries. Seven criteria (political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental, and robustness) are considered to appraise the identified energy export security alternatives. A new hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model is proposed based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets suitable for uncertain judgments that integrates Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) and the Cumulative Belief Degree (CBD) methods. CBD, which is strengthened by IFAHP in determining criteria weights, allows experts to freely evaluate alternatives in various formats and can successfully deal with missing judgments by experts in case of doubt, eligibility or lack of information. Scenario planning is also incorporated into the decision-making process by determining four realistic projections. As a case study, the proposed framework is applied to analyze Iran's energy export security. Results suggest that natural gas has the highest export priority while petroleum products (excluding gasoline) stand last in all scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Alipour, Mohammad & Hafezi, Reza & Ervural, Bilal & Kaviani, Mohamad Amin & Kabak, Özgür, 2018. "Long-term policy evaluation: Application of a new robust decision framework for Iran's energy exports security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 914-931.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:157:y:2018:i:c:p:914-931
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421831020X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.176?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goldthau, Andreas & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2012. "The uniqueness of the energy security, justice, and governance problem," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 232-240.
    2. Böhringer, Christoph & Bortolamedi, Markus, 2015. "Sense and no(n)-sense of energy security indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 359-371.
    3. Ravindra, Kumudhini & Iyer, Parameshwar P., 2014. "Decentralized demand–supply matching using community microgrids and consumer demand response: A scenario analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 32-41.
    4. Sadeghi, Mehdi & Mirshojaeian Hosseini, Hossein, 2006. "Energy supply planning in Iran by using fuzzy linear programming approach (regarding uncertainties of investment costs)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 993-1003, June.
    5. Winzer, Christian, 2012. "Conceptualizing energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 36-48.
    6. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Abbaszadeh, Payam & Maleki, Abbas & Alipour, Mohammad & Maman, Yaser Kanani, 2013. "Iran's oil development scenarios by 2025," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 612-622.
    8. Zeng, Shouzhen & Streimikiene, Dalia & Baležentis, Tomas, 2017. "Review of and comparative assessment of energy security in Baltic States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 185-192.
    9. Kabir, Golam & Sumi, Razia Sultana, 2014. "Power substation location selection using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and PROMETHEE: A case study from Bangladesh," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 717-730.
    10. Bhattacharya, Anindya & Kojima, Satoshi, 2012. "Power sector investment risk and renewable energy: A Japanese case study using portfolio risk optimization method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-80.
    11. Zhang, Long & Yu, Jing & Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Ren, Jingzheng, 2017. "Measuring energy security performance within China: Toward an inter-provincial prospective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 825-836.
    12. Westphal, Kirsten, 2014. "Institutional change in European natural gas markets and implications for energy security: Lessons from the German case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 35-43.
    13. Wang, Ying-Ming & Luo, Ying & Hua, Zhongsheng, 2008. "On the extent analysis method for fuzzy AHP and its applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 735-747, April.
    14. Bompard, E. & Carpignano, A. & Erriquez, M. & Grosso, D. & Pession, M. & Profumo, F., 2017. "National energy security assessment in a geopolitical perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 144-154.
    15. Bahrami, Mohsen & Abbaszadeh, Payam, 2016. "Development a scenario-based model for Iran׳s energy future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 963-970.
    16. Stirling, Andy, 2010. "Multicriteria diversity analysis: A novel heuristic framework for appraising energy portfolios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1622-1634, April.
    17. Gracceva, Francesco & Zeniewski, Peter, 2014. "A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 335-348.
    18. Vivoda, Vlado, 2010. "Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5258-5263, September.
    19. Lilliestam, Johan & Ellenbeck, Saskia, 2011. "Energy security and renewable electricity trade--Will Desertec make Europe vulnerable to the "energy weapon"?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3380-3391, June.
    20. Franki, Vladimir & Višković, Alfredo, 2015. "Energy security, policy and technology in South East Europe: Presenting and applying an energy security index to Croatia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 494-507.
    21. Ren, Jingzheng & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2014. "Quantifying, measuring, and strategizing energy security: Determining the most meaningful dimensions and metrics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 838-849.
    22. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani, 2011. "Conceptualizing and measuring energy security: A synthesized approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5343-5355.
    23. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    24. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Martínez Fernandez, Paulino & Soares, Isabel, 2016. "Addressing 2030 EU policy framework for energy and climate: Cost, risk and energy security issues," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1347-1360.
    25. Hafeznia, Hamed & Pourfayaz, Fathollah & Maleki, Akbar, 2017. "An assessment of Iran's natural gas potential for transition toward low-carbon economy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 71-81.
    26. Alipour, M. & Alighaleh, S. & Hafezi, R. & Omranievardi, M., 2017. "A new hybrid decision framework for prioritizing funding allocation to Iran's energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 388-402.
    27. Thangavelu, Sundar Raj & Khambadkone, Ashwin M. & Karimi, Iftekhar A., 2015. "Long-term optimal energy mix planning towards high energy security and low GHG emission," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 959-969.
    28. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Beynaghi, Ali & Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Maknoon, Reza, 2016. "An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 162-171.
    29. Wei Shen & Marcus Power, 2017. "Africa and the export of China’s clean energy revolution," Third World Quarterly, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 678-697, March.
    30. Jewell, Jessica & Cherp, Aleh & Riahi, Keywan, 2014. "Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 743-760.
    31. Stigka, Eleni K. & Paravantis, John A. & Mihalakakou, Giouli K., 2014. "Social acceptance of renewable energy sources: A review of contingent valuation applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-106.
    32. Chang, Da-Yong, 1996. "Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 649-655, December.
    33. Chung, Whan-Sam & Kim, Seung-Su & Moon, Kee-Hwan & Lim, Chae-Young & Yun, Sung-Won, 2017. "A conceptual framework for energy security evaluation of power sources in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1066-1074.
    34. Gao, Dan & Li, Zheng & Liu, Pei & Zhao, Jiazhu & Zhang, Yuning & Li, Canbing, 2018. "A coordinated energy security model taking strategic petroleum reserve and alternative fuels into consideration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 171-181.
    35. Alipour, M. & Hafezi, R. & Amer, M. & Akhavan, A.N., 2017. "A new hybrid fuzzy cognitive map-based scenario planning approach for Iran's oil production pathways in the post–sanction period," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 851-864.
    36. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gennady Osipov & Svetlana Karepova & Elena Chizhevskaya & Maxim Gnatyuk & Alexander Semin & Oksana Mikhayluk, 2018. "Directions To Improve The Effectiveness Of Russia s Energy Export Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 227-239.
    2. Alipour, M. & Hafezi, R. & Rani, Pratibha & Hafezi, Mehdi & Mardani, Abbas, 2021. "A new Pythagorean fuzzy-based decision-making method through entropy measure for fuel cell and hydrogen components supplier selection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    3. Cai, Mengting & Huang, Guohe & Chen, Jiapei & Li, Yunhuan & Fan, Yurui, 2018. "A generalized fuzzy chance-constrained energy systems planning model for Guangzhou, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 191-204.
    4. Hafezi, Reza & Wood, David A. & Akhavan, Amir Naser & Pakseresht, Saeed, 2020. "Iran in the emerging global natural gas market: A scenario-based competitive analysis and policy assessment," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Paula Donaduzzi Rigo & Graciele Rediske & Carmen Brum Rosa & Natália Gava Gastaldo & Leandro Michels & Alvaro Luiz Neuenfeldt Júnior & Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk, 2020. "Renewable Energy Problems: Exploring the Methods to Support the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, December.
    6. Cavallaro, Fausto & Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras & Streimikiene, Dalia & Mardani, Abbas, 2019. "Assessment of concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies based on a modified intuitionistic fuzzy topsis and trigonometric entropy weights," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 258-270.
    7. Reza Hafezi & Amir Naser Akhavan & Mazdak Zamani & Saeed Pakseresht & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2019. "Developing a Data Mining Based Model to Extract Predictor Factors in Energy Systems: Application of Global Natural Gas Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, October.
    8. Wu, Yunna & Ke, Yiming & Xu, Chuanbo & Li, Lingwenying, 2019. "An integrated decision-making model for sustainable photovoltaic module supplier selection based on combined weight and cumulative prospect theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1235-1251.
    9. Pavlović, Boban & Ivezić, Dejan & Živković, Marija, 2021. "Prioritization of strategic measures for strengthening the security of supply of the Serbian natural gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    10. Ghaboulian Zare, Sara & Alipour, Mohammad & Hafezi, Mehdi & Stewart, Rodney A. & Rahman, Anisur, 2022. "Examining wind energy deployment pathways in complex macro-economic and political settings using a fuzzy cognitive map-based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Long & Bai, Wuliyasu & Xiao, Huijuan & Ren, Jingzheng, 2021. "Measuring and improving regional energy security: A methodological framework based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Matsumoto, Ken’ichi & Shiraki, Hiroto, 2018. "Energy security performance in Japan under different socioeconomic and energy conditions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 391-401.
    3. Gong, Xu & Wang, You & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Assessing dynamic China’s energy security: Based on functional data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    4. Gasser, Patrick, 2020. "A review on energy security indices to compare country performances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. John A. Paravantis, 2019. "Dimensions, Components and Metrics of Energy Security: Review and Synthesis," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 38-52, October-D.
    6. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    7. Huang, Beijia & Zhang, Long & Ma, Linmao & Bai, Wuliyasu & Ren, Jingzheng, 2021. "Multi-criteria decision analysis of China’s energy security from 2008 to 2017 based on Fuzzy BWM-DEA-AR model and Malmquist Productivity Index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    8. Evgeny Lisin & Wadim Strielkowski & Veronika Chernova & Alena Fomina, 2018. "Assessment of the Territorial Energy Security in the Context of Energy Systems Integration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, November.
    9. Zaman, Rafia & Brudermann, Thomas, 2018. "Energy governance in the context of energy service security: A qualitative assessment of the electricity system in Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 443-456.
    10. Piotr Kosowski & Katarzyna Kosowska, 2021. "Valuation of Energy Security for Natural Gas—European Example," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, May.
    11. Tomasz Rokicki & Aleksandra Perkowska, 2021. "Diversity and Changes in the Energy Balance in EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Debin Fang & Shanshan Shi & Qian Yu, 2018. "Evaluation of Sustainable Energy Security and an Empirical Analysis of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-23, May.
    13. Karatayev, Marat & Hall, Stephen, 2020. "Establishing and comparing energy security trends in resource-rich exporting nations (Russia and the Caspian Sea region)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Stempien, J.P. & Chan, S.H., 2017. "Addressing energy trilemma via the modified Markowitz Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 228-237.
    15. Valdés Lucas, Javier Noel & Escribano Francés, Gonzalo & San Martín González, Enrique, 2016. "Energy security and renewable energy deployment in the EU: Liaisons Dangereuses or Virtuous Circle?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1032-1046.
    16. Zhu, Bo & Deng, Yuanyue & Lin, Renda & Hu, Xin & Chen, Pingshe, 2022. "Energy security: Does systemic risk spillover matter? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Cox, Emily, 2018. "Assessing long-term energy security: The case of electricity in the United Kingdom," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2287-2299.
    18. Huang, Shi-Wei & Chung, Yung-Fu & Wu, Tai-Hsi, 2021. "Analyzing the relationship between energy security performance and decoupling of economic growth from CO2 emissions for OECD countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Tete, Komlan H.S. & Soro, Y.M. & Sidibé, S.S. & Jones, Rory V., 2023. "Assessing energy security within the electricity sector in the West African economic and monetary union: Inter-country performances and trends analysis with policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    20. Li, Jinchao & Wang, Lina & Lin, Xiaoshan & Qu, Shen, 2020. "Analysis of China’s energy security evaluation system: Based on the energy security data from 30 provinces from 2010 to 2016," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:157:y:2018:i:c:p:914-931. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.