IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v82y2018ip3p2287-2299.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing long-term energy security: The case of electricity in the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Cox, Emily

Abstract

There is a growing body of research into the potential security risks and trade-offs which may emerge over the long-term development of energy systems. As part of this body of research, this paper aims to develop and demonstrate a set of indicators for assessing the security of long-term national electricity scenarios. This paper extends the empirical work of existing frameworks by including reliability and cost parameters alongside a range of other important aspects of energy security such as diversity, trade and acceptability, and by using both qualitative and quantitative indicators without aggregation in order to identify trade-offs. This paper uses the indicators to assess the energy security implications of three plausible long-term scenarios for the UK electricity system. The results indicate that a major risk may be experienced by a lack of flexible, responsive supply capacity in low-carbon electricity pathways. Reducing overall energy demand is found to be the most beneficial policy for improving energy security in terms of generating benefits in multiple dimensions. The paper finds that energy security is often conceptualised as the avoidance of causes of insecurity (such as insecure fuel imports), but that an equally important aspect of security lies in maximising responses to insecurity, for example by increasing the flexibility and responsiveness of both supply and demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Cox, Emily, 2018. "Assessing long-term energy security: The case of electricity in the United Kingdom," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2287-2299.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:82:y:2018:i:p3:p:2287-2299
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.08.084
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032117312261
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2017.08.084?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pfenninger, Stefan & Keirstead, James, 2015. "Renewables, nuclear, or fossil fuels? Scenarios for Great Britain’s power system considering costs, emissions and energy security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 83-93.
    2. Böhringer, Christoph & Bortolamedi, Markus, 2015. "Sense and no(n)-sense of energy security indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 359-371.
    3. Jed Cohen & Klaus Moeltner & Johannes Reichl & Michael Schmidthaler, 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Local Opposition to New Transmission Lines Across the EU-27," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 59-82, July.
    4. Foxon, Timothy J., 2013. "Transition pathways for a UK low carbon electricity future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-24.
    5. Bompard, E. & Carpignano, A. & Erriquez, M. & Grosso, D. & Pession, M. & Profumo, F., 2017. "National energy security assessment in a geopolitical perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 144-154.
    6. Watson, Jim & Gross, Rob & Ketsopoulou, Ioanna & Winskel, Mark, 2015. "The impact of uncertainties on the UK's medium-term climate change targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 685-695.
    7. Grubb, Michael & Butler, Lucy & Twomey, Paul, 2006. "Diversity and security in UK electricity generation: The influence of low-carbon objectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 4050-4062, December.
    8. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani, 2011. "Conceptualizing and measuring energy security: A synthesized approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5343-5355.
    9. Jewell, Jessica & Cherp, Aleh & Riahi, Keywan, 2014. "Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 743-760.
    10. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2016. "Differing cultures of energy security: An international comparison of public perceptions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 811-822.
    11. Wang, Qiang & Zhou, Kan, 2017. "A framework for evaluating global national energy security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 19-31.
    12. Radovanović, Mirjana & Filipović, Sanja & Pavlović, Dejan, 2017. "Energy security measurement – A sustainable approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1020-1032.
    13. Pudjianto, Danny & Djapic, Predrag & Aunedi, Marko & Gan, Chin Kim & Strbac, Goran & Huang, Sikai & Infield, David, 2013. "Smart control for minimizing distribution network reinforcement cost due to electrification," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 76-84.
    14. Oree, Vishwamitra & Sayed Hassen, Sayed Z. & Fleming, Peter J., 2017. "Generation expansion planning optimisation with renewable energy integration: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 790-803.
    15. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Saunders, Harry, 2014. "Competing policy packages and the complexity of energy security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 641-651.
    16. Smith Stegen, Karen, 2015. "Heavy rare earths, permanent magnets, and renewable energies: An imminent crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-8.
    17. García-Gusano, Diego & Iribarren, Diego & Garraín, Daniel, 2017. "Prospective analysis of energy security: A practical life-cycle approach focused on renewable power generation and oriented towards policy-makers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 891-901.
    18. Keay, Malcolm, 2016. "UK energy policy – Stuck in ideological limbo?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 247-252.
    19. Barnacle, M. & Robertson, E. & Galloway, S. & Barton, J. & Ault, G., 2013. "Modelling generation and infrastructure requirements for transition pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 60-75.
    20. Fast, Stewart & Mabee, Warren, 2015. "Place-making and trust-building: The influence of policy on host community responses to wind farms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 27-37.
    21. Cherp, Aleh & Jewell, Jessica, 2014. "The concept of energy security: Beyond the four As," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 415-421.
    22. Creti, Anna & Fabra, Natalia, 2007. "Supply security and short-run capacity markets for electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 259-276, March.
    23. Zeng, Shouzhen & Streimikiene, Dalia & Baležentis, Tomas, 2017. "Review of and comparative assessment of energy security in Baltic States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 185-192.
    24. Barton, John & Huang, Sikai & Infield, David & Leach, Matthew & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Torriti, Jacopo & Thomson, Murray, 2013. "The evolution of electricity demand and the role for demand side participation, in buildings and transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 85-102.
    25. Chester, Lynne, 2010. "Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 887-895, February.
    26. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    27. Narula, Kapil & Reddy, B. Sudhakara, 2015. "Three blind men and an elephant: The case of energy indices to measure energy security and energy sustainability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 148-158.
    28. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 89-109.
    29. Cohen, Jed J. & Reichl, Johannes & Schmidthaler, Michael, 2014. "Re-focussing research efforts on the public acceptance of energy infrastructure: A critical review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 4-9.
    30. Watson, Jim & Scott, Alister, 2009. "New nuclear power in the UK: A strategy for energy security?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5094-5104, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Kai-Hua & Zhao, Yan-Xin & Su, Yun Hsuan & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "Energy security and CO2 emissions: New evidence from time-varying and quantile-varying aspects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    2. Piotr Kosowski & Katarzyna Kosowska, 2021. "Valuation of Energy Security for Natural Gas—European Example," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Matsumoto, Ken’ichi & Shiraki, Hiroto, 2018. "Energy security performance in Japan under different socioeconomic and energy conditions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 391-401.
    4. Rahman, Arief & Dargusch, Paul & Wadley, David, 2021. "The political economy of oil supply in Indonesia and the implications for renewable energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Tomasz Rokicki & Aleksandra Perkowska, 2021. "Diversity and Changes in the Energy Balance in EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Tomasz Rokicki & Piotr Bórawski & Barbara Gradziuk & Piotr Gradziuk & Aldona Mrówczyńska-Kamińska & Joanna Kozak & Danuta Jolanta Guzal-Dec & Kamil Wojtczuk, 2021. "Differentiation and Changes of Household Electricity Prices in EU Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, October.
    7. Wei, Wendong & Cai, Wenqiu & Guo, Yi & Bai, Caiquan & Yang, Luzhen, 2020. "Decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China's provinces from the perspective of resource security," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Gong, Xu & Wang, You & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Assessing dynamic China’s energy security: Based on functional data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    9. Zhang, Long & Bai, Wuliyasu & Xiao, Huijuan & Ren, Jingzheng, 2021. "Measuring and improving regional energy security: A methodological framework based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    10. Wang, Deqing & Tian, Sihua & Fang, Lei & Xu, Yan, 2020. "A functional index model for dynamically evaluating China's energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Long & Bai, Wuliyasu & Xiao, Huijuan & Ren, Jingzheng, 2021. "Measuring and improving regional energy security: A methodological framework based on both quantitative and qualitative analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Piotr Kosowski & Katarzyna Kosowska, 2021. "Valuation of Energy Security for Natural Gas—European Example," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Jacek Strojny & Anna Krakowiak-Bal & Jarosław Knaga & Piotr Kacorzyk, 2023. "Energy Security: A Conceptual Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-35, June.
    4. Huang, Beijia & Zhang, Long & Ma, Linmao & Bai, Wuliyasu & Ren, Jingzheng, 2021. "Multi-criteria decision analysis of China’s energy security from 2008 to 2017 based on Fuzzy BWM-DEA-AR model and Malmquist Productivity Index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    5. Evgeny Lisin & Wadim Strielkowski & Veronika Chernova & Alena Fomina, 2018. "Assessment of the Territorial Energy Security in the Context of Energy Systems Integration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Valdés Lucas, Javier Noel & Escribano Francés, Gonzalo & San Martín González, Enrique, 2016. "Energy security and renewable energy deployment in the EU: Liaisons Dangereuses or Virtuous Circle?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1032-1046.
    7. Zaman, Rafia & Brudermann, Thomas, 2018. "Energy governance in the context of energy service security: A qualitative assessment of the electricity system in Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 443-456.
    8. Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Wind Power and Externalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 245-260.
    9. Gasser, Patrick, 2020. "A review on energy security indices to compare country performances," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Alipour, Mohammad & Hafezi, Reza & Ervural, Bilal & Kaviani, Mohamad Amin & Kabak, Özgür, 2018. "Long-term policy evaluation: Application of a new robust decision framework for Iran's energy exports security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 914-931.
    11. Siksnelyte-Butkiene, Indre & Streimikiene, Dalia & Lekavicius, Vidas & Balezentis, Tomas, 2024. "Comprehensive analysis of energy security indicators and measurement of their integrity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Gong, Xu & Wang, You & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Assessing dynamic China’s energy security: Based on functional data analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. John A. Paravantis, 2019. "Dimensions, Components and Metrics of Energy Security: Review and Synthesis," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 38-52, October-D.
    14. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    15. Ioannidis, Alexis & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J. & Li, Xin & Notton, Gilles & Stephanides, Phedeas, 2019. "The case for islands’ energy vulnerability: Electricity supply diversity in 44 global islands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 440-452.
    16. Coutinho, Gabriel Leuzinger & Vianna, João Nildo & Dias, Maria Amélia, 2020. "Alternatives for improving energy security in Cape Verde," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Stempien, J.P. & Chan, S.H., 2017. "Addressing energy trilemma via the modified Markowitz Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 228-237.
    18. García-Gusano, Diego & Iribarren, Diego, 2018. "Prospective energy security scenarios in Spain: The future role of renewable power generation technologies and climate change implications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 202-209.
    19. Abdullah, Fahad Bin & Iqbal, Rizwan & Hyder, Syed Irfan & Jawaid, Mohammad, 2020. "Energy security indicators for Pakistan: An integrated approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    20. Tutak, Magdalena & Brodny, Jarosław, 2022. "Analysis of the level of energy security in the three seas initiative countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:82:y:2018:i:p3:p:2287-2299. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.