IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v87y2015icp685-695.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of uncertainties on the UK's medium-term climate change targets

Author

Listed:
  • Watson, Jim
  • Gross, Rob
  • Ketsopoulou, Ioanna
  • Winskel, Mark

Abstract

The UK is committed to ambitious medium- and long-term climate change targets, including a commitment to an 80% reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2050. Whilst emissions have fallen significantly since 1990, further reductions will be increasingly difficult to achieve. The government has agreed carbon budgets to the late 2020s that are consistent with the long-term 80% target. However, increasing energy prices since the mid-2000s and the 2008 financial crisis have led to cracks in the political consensus in support of these budgets and targets.

Suggested Citation

  • Watson, Jim & Gross, Rob & Ketsopoulou, Ioanna & Winskel, Mark, 2015. "The impact of uncertainties on the UK's medium-term climate change targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 685-695.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:87:y:2015:i:c:p:685-695
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515001032
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.02.030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Foxon, Timothy J., 2013. "Transition pathways for a UK low carbon electricity future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-24.
    2. Hughes, Nick, 2013. "Towards improving the relevance of scenarios for public policy questions: A proposed methodological framework for policy relevant low carbon scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 687-698.
    3. McGlade, Christophe & Speirs, Jamie & Sorrell, Steve, 2013. "Unconventional gas – A review of regional and global resource estimates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 571-584.
    4. Watson, Jim & Kern, Florian & Markusson, Nils, 2014. "Resolving or managing uncertainties for carbon capture and storage: Lessons from historical analogues," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 192-204.
    5. Andrew Stirling, 1998. "Risk at a turning point?," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 97-109, April.
    6. Roger Miller & Donald R. Lessard, 2008. "Evolving Strategy: Risk Management and the Shaping of Mega-Projects," Chapters, in: Hugo Priemus & Bent Flyvbjerg & Bert van Wee (ed.), Decision-Making on Mega-Projects, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Russell L. Ackoff, 1971. "Towards a System of Systems Concepts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(11), pages 661-671, July.
    8. Hughes, Nick & Strachan, Neil, 2010. "Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6056-6065, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vijay, Avinash & Fouquet, Nicolas & Staffell, Iain & Hawkes, Adam, 2017. "The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 111-123.
    2. Cox, Emily, 2018. "Assessing long-term energy security: The case of electricity in the United Kingdom," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2287-2299.
    3. Zeyringer, Marianne & Fais, Birgit & Keppo, Ilkka & Price, James, 2018. "The potential of marine energy technologies in the UK – Evaluation from a systems perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1281-1293.
    4. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 89-109.
    5. Onifade, Temitope Tunbi, 2016. "Hybrid renewable energy support policy in the power sector: The contracts for difference and capacity market case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 390-401.
    6. Wegner, Marie-Sophie & Hall, Stephen & Hardy, Jeffrey & Workman, Mark, 2017. "Valuing energy futures; a comparative analysis of value pools across UK energy system scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 815-828.
    7. Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva & Pahle, Michael & Knopf, Brigitte, 2016. "Strategies against shocks in power systems – An analysis for the case of Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 455-465.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Geels, F.W. & McMeekin, A. & Pfluger, B., 2020. "Socio-technical scenarios as a methodological tool to explore social and political feasibility in low-carbon transitions: Bridging computer models and the multi-level perspective in UK electricity gen," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    2. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Barton, John & O'Grady, Áine & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Pudjianto, Danny & Robertson, Elizabeth, 2014. "Linking a storyline with multiple models: A cross-scale study of the UK power system transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 26-42.
    3. Parkinson, Aidan & Guthrie, Peter, 2014. "Evaluating the energy performance of buildings within a value at risk framework with demonstration on UK offices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 40-55.
    4. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    5. Skea, Jim & van Diemen, Renée & Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Khourdajie, Alaa Al, 2021. "Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Yazdanie, M. & Orehounig, K., 2021. "Advancing urban energy system planning and modeling approaches: Gaps and solutions in perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Barton, John & Davies, Lloyd & Dooley, Ben & Foxon, Timothy J. & Galloway, Stuart & Hammond, Geoffrey P. & O’Grady, Áine & Robertson, Elizabeth & Thomson, Murray, 2018. "Transition pathways for a UK low-carbon electricity system: Comparing scenarios and technology implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2779-2790.
    8. Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. & Keirstead, James & Shah, Nilay & Woods, Jeremy, 2016. "A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1531-1544.
    9. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    10. Taylor, Peter G. & Bolton, Ronan & Stone, Dave & Upham, Paul, 2013. "Developing pathways for energy storage in the UK using a coevolutionary framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 230-243.
    11. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    12. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil & Dodds, Paul E. & Pudjianto, Danny & Strbac, Goran, 2015. "Synergies and trade-offs between governance and costs in electricity system transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 170-181.
    13. Robertson, Elizabeth & O'Grady, Áine & Barton, John & Galloway, Stuart & Emmanuel-Yusuf, Damiete & Leach, Matthew & Hammond, Geoff & Thomson, Murray & Foxon, Tim, 2017. "Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: An iterative approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-306.
    14. Hooper, Tara & Austen, Melanie C. & Beaumont, Nicola & Heptonstall, Philip & Holland, Robert A. & Ketsopoulou, Ioanna & Taylor, Gail & Watson, Jim & Winskel, Mark, 2018. "Do energy scenarios pay sufficient attention to the environment? Lessons from the UK to support improved policy outcomes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 397-408.
    15. Wegner, Marie-Sophie & Hall, Stephen & Hardy, Jeffrey & Workman, Mark, 2017. "Valuing energy futures; a comparative analysis of value pools across UK energy system scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 815-828.
    16. Yin, Hong & Zhou, Junping & Xian, Xuefu & Jiang, Yongdong & Lu, Zhaohui & Tan, Jingqiang & Liu, Guojun, 2017. "Experimental study of the effects of sub- and super-critical CO2 saturation on the mechanical characteristics of organic-rich shales," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 84-95.
    17. Dimitrios Mendrinos & Spyridon Karytsas & Olympia Polyzou & Constantine Karytsas & Åsta Dyrnes Nordø & Kirsti Midttømme & Danny Otto & Matthias Gross & Marit Sprenkeling & Ruben Peuchen & Tara Geerdin, 2022. "Understanding Societal Requirements of CCS Projects: Application of the Societal Embeddedness Level Assessment Methodology in Four National Case Studies," Clean Technol., MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-15, September.
    18. Minkkinen, Matti, 2019. "The anatomy of plausible futures in policy processes: Comparing the cases of data protection and comprehensive security," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 172-180.
    19. Foxon, Timothy J., 2013. "Transition pathways for a UK low carbon electricity future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-24.
    20. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:87:y:2015:i:c:p:685-695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.