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Valuing energy futures; a comparative analysis of value pools across UK energy system scenarios

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  • Wegner, Marie-Sophie
  • Hall, Stephen
  • Hardy, Jeffrey
  • Workman, Mark

Abstract

Electricity markets in liberalised nations are composed primarily of private firms that make strategic decisions about how to secure competitive advantage. Energy transitions, driven by decarbonisation targets and technological innovation, will create new markets and destroy old ones in a re-configuration of the power sector. This research suggests that by 2050 up to 21bnGBP per year of new financial value is available in the UK electricity system, and that depending on scenario, these new values represent up to 31% of the entire electricity sector. To service these markets business model innovation and new firm strategies are needed in electric power provision. Energy scenarios can inform strategic decisions over business model adaptation, but to date scenario modelling has not directly addressed firm strategy and behaviour. This is due in part to neo-classical assumptions of firm rationality and perfect foresight. This research adopts a resource based view of the firm rooted in evolutionary economics to argue that quantifying the relative size of the markets created and destroyed by energy transitions can provide useful insight into firm behaviour and innovation policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Wegner, Marie-Sophie & Hall, Stephen & Hardy, Jeffrey & Workman, Mark, 2017. "Valuing energy futures; a comparative analysis of value pools across UK energy system scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 815-828.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:206:y:2017:i:c:p:815-828
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.08.200
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    2. Dawid Stadniczenko, 2020. "Development and Challenges for the Functioning of the Renewable Energy Prosumer in Poland: A Legal Perspective," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 623-630.
    3. Brown, Donal & Hall, Stephen & Davis, Mark E., 2019. "Prosumers in the post subsidy era: an exploration of new prosumer business models in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Watson, Nicole Elizabeth & Huebner, Gesche & Fell, Michael James & Shipworth, David, 2020. "Two energy suppliers are better than one: survey experiments on consumer engagement with local energy in GB," SocArXiv e9nyu, Center for Open Science.
    5. Christoph Mazur & Stephen Hall & Jeffrey Hardy & Mark Workman, 2019. "Technology is not a Barrier: A Survey of Energy System Technologies Required for Innovative Electricity Business Models Driving the Low Carbon Energy Revolution," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, January.

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