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Modelling generation and infrastructure requirements for transition pathways

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  • Barnacle, M.
  • Robertson, E.
  • Galloway, S.
  • Barton, J.
  • Ault, G.

Abstract

With national targets to reduce carbon emissions enforced by international accords, the UK's energy sector will move towards its low carbon future through political, societal and technological drivers. Three Transition Pathway narratives have been developed to describe three different evolutions of the UK energy sector out to 2050. This paper details two tools that have been combined to assess the robustness and rationale of these three energy futures. The future energy scenario assessment (FESA) tool is used to develop pathway specific large-scale generation mixes that meet expected demands on both a yearly and hourly time step basis. The multi-objective transmission reinforcement planning (MOTRiP) tool is used to generate a set of electrical network plans for the assessment of expected electrical infrastructure requirements, following the application of the future generation mixes to the current GB electrical transmission network. The results, detailed throughout this paper, demonstrate that the combination of FESA's detailed temporal analysis and MOTRiP's comprehensive geographical analysis provides a high-quality holistic examination of the Transition Pathways scenarios, assessing the need for national infrastructure reinforcements with the changing demand and generation patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Barnacle, M. & Robertson, E. & Galloway, S. & Barton, J. & Ault, G., 2013. "Modelling generation and infrastructure requirements for transition pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 60-75.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:60-75
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.031
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    Cited by:

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    9. Lacey-Barnacle, M. & Bird, C.M., 2018. "Intermediating energy justice? The role of intermediaries in the civic energy sector in a time of austerity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 71-81.
    10. Garvey, S.D. & Eames, P.C. & Wang, J.H. & Pimm, A.J. & Waterson, M. & MacKay, R.S. & Giulietti, M. & Flatley, L.C. & Thomson, M. & Barton, J. & Evans, D.J. & Busby, J. & Garvey, J.E., 2015. "On generation-integrated energy storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 544-551.
    11. Robertson, Elizabeth & O'Grady, Áine & Barton, John & Galloway, Stuart & Emmanuel-Yusuf, Damiete & Leach, Matthew & Hammond, Geoff & Thomson, Murray & Foxon, Tim, 2017. "Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: An iterative approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-306.
    12. Hammond, Geoff & O'Grady, Áine, 2013. "The Implications of Upstream Emissions from the Power Sector," Realising Transition Pathways 44209, University of Bath, Realising Transition Pathways.
    13. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil & Dodds, Paul E. & Pudjianto, Danny & Strbac, Goran, 2015. "Synergies and trade-offs between governance and costs in electricity system transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 170-181.
    14. Lacey-Barnacle, M. & Smith, A. & Foxon, T.J., 2023. "Community wealth building in an age of just transitions: Exploring civil society approaches to net zero and future research synergies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    15. Kueppers, Martin & Paredes Pineda, Stephany Nicole & Metzger, Michael & Huber, Matthias & Paulus, Simon & Heger, Hans Joerg & Niessen, Stefan, 2021. "Decarbonization pathways of worldwide energy systems – Definition and modeling of archetypes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    16. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Barton, John & O'Grady, Áine & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Pudjianto, Danny & Robertson, Elizabeth, 2014. "Linking a storyline with multiple models: A cross-scale study of the UK power system transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 26-42.
    17. Sithole, H. & Cockerill, T.T. & Hughes, K.J. & Ingham, D.B. & Ma, L. & Porter, R.T.J. & Pourkashanian, M., 2016. "Developing an optimal electricity generation mix for the UK 2050 future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 363-373.
    18. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.

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