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The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios

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  • Quiggin, Daniel
  • Buswell, Richard

Abstract

Published UK 2050 energy scenarios specify a range of decarbonised supply side technologies combined with electrification of transportation and heating. These scenarios are designed to meet CO2 reduction targets whilst maintaining reliability of supply. Current models of the UK energy system either make significant assumptions about the role of demand side management or do not carry out the analysis at sufficient resolution and hence determining the impact of heat electrification on the reliability of supply of the scenarios is not possible. This paper presents a new model that estimates national supply and demand, hour-by-hour. Calculations are based on 11 years of weather data which allows a probabilistic assessment of deficit frequency throughout the day. It is found that achieving demand reduction targets are far more important than meeting electrification targets and that significant adoption of CHP is most likely to deliver a viable energy future for the UK.

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  • Quiggin, Daniel & Buswell, Richard, 2016. "The implications of heat electrification on national electrical supply-demand balance under published 2050 energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 253-270.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:98:y:2016:i:c:p:253-270
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.060
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    14. Gong, Xuan & De Paola, Antonio & Angeli, David & Strbac, Goran, 2019. "A game-theoretic approach for price-based coordination of flexible devices operating in integrated energy-reserve markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    15. Halilovic, Smajil & Odersky, Leonhard & Hamacher, Thomas, 2022. "Integration of groundwater heat pumps into energy system optimization models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    16. Wang, Yuhao & Qu, Ke & Chen, Xiangjie & Zhang, Xingxing & Riffat, Saffa, 2022. "Holistic electrification vs deep energy retrofits for optimal decarbonisation pathways of UK dwellings: A case study of the 1940s’ British post-war masonry house," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    17. Jiang Zhu & Zhenyu Zhao, 2017. "Chinese Electric Power Development Coordination Analysis on Resource, Production and Consumption: A Provincial Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, February.
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    19. Jean-Nicolas Louis & Stéphane Allard & Freideriki Kotrotsou & Vincent Debusschere, 2020. "A multi-objective approach to the prospective development of the European power system by 2050," Post-Print hal-02376337, HAL.
    20. Gauthier de Maere d’Aertrycke & Yves Smeers & Hugues de Peufeilhoux & Pierre-Laurent Lucille, 2020. "The Role of Electrification in the Decarbonization of Central-Western Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-20, September.
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    22. Salman Siddiqui & Mark Barrett & John Macadam, 2021. "A High Resolution Spatiotemporal Urban Heat Load Model for GB," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-28, July.
    23. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    24. Louis, Jean-Nicolas & Allard, Stéphane & Kotrotsou, Freideriki & Debusschere, Vincent, 2020. "A multi-objective approach to the prospective development of the European power system by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    25. Gabrielli, Paolo & Poluzzi, Alessandro & Kramer, Gert Jan & Spiers, Christopher & Mazzotti, Marco & Gazzani, Matteo, 2020. "Seasonal energy storage for zero-emissions multi-energy systems via underground hydrogen storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

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