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Measuring sustainable development for the future with climate change mitigation; a case study of applying an integrated assessment model under IPCC SRES scenarios

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  • Koji Tokimatsu

    ()

  • Rintaro Yamaguchi
  • Masayuki Sato
  • Rieko Yasuoka
  • Masahiro Nishio
  • Kazuhiro Ueta

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) described mainstreaming climate change mitigation into development choices in its Fourth Assessment Report, chapter 12 of Working Group III. It also pointed out that “few macro-indicators include measures of progress with respect to climate change” despite the needs for the inclusion. This paper tackled this point in the following ways by applying an integrated assessment model. First, this study applied shadow prices and production, endogenously obtained from the model, instead of using market prices and statistical data used in preceding studies in the economics literature. Second, this study measured forecasts of genuine saving (GS) and wealth globally up to the year 2100, while preceding studies were constrained to past and current savings and wealth. Third, this study examined changes in GS and wealth in different future scenarios on IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) with CO 2 emissions constraints. Finally, the authors adopted a GS estimation methodology of shadow prices in imperfect economies by Kenneth Arrow and Partha Dasgupta, instead of that of perfect economies by Kirk Hamilton et al., on which the authors had based previous studies. This makes the indicator consistent with changes of wealth. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Koji Tokimatsu & Rintaro Yamaguchi & Masayuki Sato & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio & Kazuhiro Ueta, 2012. "Measuring sustainable development for the future with climate change mitigation; a case study of applying an integrated assessment model under IPCC SRES scenarios," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 14(6), pages 915-938, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:14:y:2012:i:6:p:915-938
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-012-9360-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tol, Richard S. J., 2005. "The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2064-2074, November.
    2. Kenneth J. Arrow & Partha Dasgupta & Karl-Göran Mäler, 2003. "The genuine savings criterion and the value of population," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(2), pages 217-225, March.
    3. Kirk Hamilton, 2003. "Sustaining Economic Welfare: Estimating Changes in Total and Per Capita Wealth," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 419-436, September.
    4. Kenneth Arrow & Partha Dasgupta & Lawrence Goulder & Gretchen Daily & Paul Ehrlich & Geoffrey Heal & Simon Levin & Karl-Göran Mäler & Stephen Schneider & David Starrett & Brian Walker, 2004. "Are We Consuming Too Much?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 147-172, Summer.
    5. Ferreira, Susana & Moro, Mirko, 2010. "Constructing Genuine Savings Indicators for Ireland, 1995-2005," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2010-10, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
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    9. Koji Tokimatsu & Rintaro Yamaguchi & Masayuki Sato & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio & Kazuhiro Ueta, 2011. "Measuring future dynamics of genuine saving with changes of population and technology: application of an integrated assessment model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 703-725, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Koji Tokimatsu & Rieko Yasuoka & Masahiro Nishio & Kazuhiro Ueta, 2014. "A study on forecasting paths of genuine savings and wealth without and with carbon dioxide constraints: development of shadow price functions," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 723-745, June.
    2. Nir Y. Krakauer, 2014. "Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(3), pages 1-14, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wealth; Genuine saving (GS); Future dynamics; IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change); SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios); Integrated assessment model; CO 2 emissions constraint; Q01; Q56;

    JEL classification:

    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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