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Measuring Weak Sustainability for the future: Calculating Genuine Saving with population change by an integrated assessment model


  • Koji, Tokimatsu
  • Takanobu, Kosugi
  • Atsushi, Kurosawa
  • Norihiro, Itsubo
  • Masaji, Sakagami


This paper presents a future figure of Genuine Saving with population growth (GSn). This was enabled by using an integrated assessment model, similar to the RICE model by Nordhaus. The model consists of sub-models that evaluate various kinds of mineral resources and environmental impacts. Results indicates that GSn is positive i) in OECD during the 21st century, ii) in World and the former Soviet Union and East Europe after 2030, and iii) in Asia and the Middle East and Africa after 2050. GSn is negative in Latin America during the 21st century.

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  • Koji, Tokimatsu & Takanobu, Kosugi & Atsushi, Kurosawa & Norihiro, Itsubo & Masaji, Sakagami, 2009. "Measuring Weak Sustainability for the future: Calculating Genuine Saving with population change by an integrated assessment model," MPRA Paper 16728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16728

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Avinash Dixit & Peter Hammond & Michael Hoel, 1980. "On Hartwick's Rule for Regular Maximin Paths of Capital Accumulation and Resource Depletion," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 551-556.
    2. Hamilton, Kirk & Clemens, Michael, 1999. "Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 333-356, May.
    3. Kenneth Arrow & Partha Dasgupta & Lawrence Goulder & Gretchen Daily & Paul Ehrlich & Geoffrey Heal & Simon Levin & Karl-Göran Mäler & Stephen Schneider & David Starrett & Brian Walker, 2004. "Are We Consuming Too Much?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 147-172, Summer.
    4. Kirk Hamilton & John Hartwick, 2005. "Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 615-621, May.
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    6. Geir Asheim, 2004. "Green national accounting with a changing population," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(3), pages 601-619, March.
    7. Graciela Chichilnisky, 1996. "An axiomatic approach to sustainable development," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 13(2), pages 231-257, April.
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    13. Kosugi, Takanobu & Tokimatsu, Koji & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Itsubo, Norihiro & Yagita, Hiroshi & Sakagami, Masaji, 2009. "Internalization of the external costs of global environmental damage in an integrated assessment model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2664-2678, July.
    14. Pearce, David W. & Atkinson, Giles D., 1993. "Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of "weak" sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 103-108, October.
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    More about this item


    Genuine Saving; population change; sustainability; integrated assessment model; impact assessment model; growth model;

    JEL classification:

    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development

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