IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nea/journl/y2011i12p77-100.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Dependence of the Potential Sustainability of a Resource Economy on the Initial State: a Comparison of Models Using the Example of Russian Oil Extraction

Author

Listed:
  • Bazhanov, A.

    (Far Eastern Federal University, Vladivostok, Russia; Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada)

Abstract

The studies of the International Monetary Fund offer a model for recom-mending sustainable budget policy to oil-exporting countries including Russia. The model does not contain any resource as a factor of production and assumes that Russian oil reserves will be exhausted by the middle of the 21st century. The current paper examines the sustainability of open and closed models, which are calibrated on Russia’s data and include a resource as a factor of production. The open-model case shows that monotonic economic growth is impossible given the current state of the Russian economy. This paper offers an approach for estimating changes that improve long-term sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Bazhanov, A., 2011. "The Dependence of the Potential Sustainability of a Resource Economy on the Initial State: a Comparison of Models Using the Example of Russian Oil Extraction," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 77-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2011:i:12:p:77-100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/journal/pdf/Bazhanov_12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econorus.org/repec/journl/2011-12-77-100r.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brander, James A & Taylor, M Scott, 1998. "The Simple Economics of Easter Island: A Ricardo-Malthus Model of Renewable Resource Use," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 119-138, March.
    2. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    3. Geir B. Asheim, 2010. "Intergenerational Equity," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 197-222, September.
    4. Svensson, Lars E O, 1986. " On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources: Comment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 153-155.
    5. Watson, Mark W, 1993. "Measures of Fit for Calibrated Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1011-1041, December.
    6. Kenneth Arrow & Partha Dasgupta & Karl-Göran Mäler, 2003. "Evaluating Projects and Assessing Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(4), pages 647-685, December.
    7. Hamilton, Kirk & Clemens, Michael, 1999. "Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 333-356, May.
    8. World Commission on Environment and Development,, 1987. "Our Common Future," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780192820808, Decembrie.
    9. Elsa V. Artadi & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "The Economic Tragedy of the XXth Century: Growth in Africa," NBER Working Papers 9865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Pezzey, John C.V., 2004. "Exact measures of income in a hyperbolic economy," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 473-484, August.
    11. Geir Asheim & Wolfgang Buchholz & Cees Withagen, 2003. "The Hartwick Rule: Myths and Facts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 25(2), pages 129-150, June.
    12. Kirk Hamilton & John Hartwick, 2005. "Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 615-621, May.
    13. Eric Neumayer, 2000. "Scarce or Abundant? The Economics of Natural Resource Availability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 307-335, July.
    14. Frederick Ploeg, 2011. "Rapacious Resource Depletion, Excessive Investment and Insecure Property Rights: A Puzzle," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(1), pages 105-128, January.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Russian Federation; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/430, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "Economic Growth, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262025531, December.
    17. Asheim, Geir B. & Buchholz, Wolfgang & Hartwick, John M. & Mitra, Tapan & Withagen, Cees, 2007. "Constant savings rates and quasi-arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 213-229, March.
    18. Wolfgang Buchholz & Swapan Dasgupta & Tapan Mitra, 2005. "Intertemporal Equity and Hartwick's Rule in an Exhaustible Resource Model," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(3), pages 547-561, September.
    19. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth in a resource-based economy: the extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 12350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    21. James A. Brander, 2010. "Presidential Address: Innovation in retrospect and prospect," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(4), pages 1087-1121, November.
    22. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2007. "The transition to an oil contraction economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 186-193, October.
    23. Eric Neumayer, 2013. "Weak versus Strong Sustainability," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14993.
    24. Maler, Karl-Goran, 1986. " On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources: Comment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 151-152.
    25. Robert J. Barro & Rachel McCleary, 2003. "Religion and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Kirk Hamilton & Cees Withagen, 2007. "Savings growth and the path of utility," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 703-713, May.
    27. Proops, John L. R. & Atkinson, Giles & Schlotheim, Burkhard Frhr. v. & Simon, Sandrine, 1999. "International trade and the sustainability footprint: a practical criterion for its assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 75-97, January.
    28. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth: The extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 9911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/430, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Neumayer, Eric, 2000. "Scarce or Abundant? The Economics of Natural Resource Availability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 307-335, July.
    31. Hideo Suzuki, 1976. "On the Possibility of Steadily Growing per capita Consumption in an Economy with a Wasting and Non-Replenishable Resource," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 43(3), pages 527-535.
    32. Mitra, Tapan, 1983. "Limits on Population Growth under Exhaustible Resource Constraints," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(1), pages 155-168, February.
    33. Andrei Bazhanov, 2012. "A Closed-Form Solution to Stollery’s Problem with Damage in Utility," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 365-386, April.
    34. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    35. Pezzey, J.C.V.John C. V., 2004. "One-sided sustainability tests with amenities, and changes in technology, trade and population," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 613-631, July.
    36. Pezzey, J., 1992. "Sustainable Development Concepts; An Economic Analysis," Papers 2, World Bank - The World Bank Environment Paper.
    37. Plumper, Thomas & Martin, Christian W, 2003. "Democracy, Government Spending, and Economic Growth: A Political-Economic Explanation of the Barro-Effect," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 117(1-2), pages 27-50, October.
    38. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2010. "Sustainable growth: Compatibility between a plausible growth criterion and the initial state," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 116-125, June.
    39. Solow, Robert M, 1986. " On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 141-149.
    40. Pezzey, John C V & Withagen, Cees A, 1998. " The Rise, Fall and Sustainability of Capital-Resource Economies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(2), pages 513-527, June.
    41. Joseph Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 123-137.
    42. Partha Dasgupta & Geoffrey Heal, 1974. "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 3-28.
    43. Robert J. Barro, 2003. "Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(2), pages 231-274, November.
    44. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
    45. Kenneth Stollery, 1998. "Constant Utility Paths and Irreversible Global Warming," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 730-742, August.
    46. Partha Dasgupta & Robert Eastwood & Geoffrey Heal, 1978. "Resource Management in a Trading Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 297-306.
    47. Geir B. Asheim, 2005. "Intergenerational Ethics under Resource Constraints," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 141(III), pages 313-330, September.
    48. Richard Lipsey & Kenneth Carlaw, 2004. "Total factor productivity and the measurement of technological change," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1118-1150, November.
    49. Pearce, David W. & Atkinson, Giles D., 1993. "Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of "weak" sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 103-108, October.
    50. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Maximin-optimal sustainable growth in a resource-based imperfect economy," MPRA Paper 16245, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Jul 2009.
    51. Xavier Sala-i-Martín & Elsa V. Artadi, 2003. "Economic growth and investment in the Arab world," Economics Working Papers 683, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    52. V. Polterovich & V. Popov & A. Tonis., 2007. "Mechanisms of Resource Curse and Economic Policy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    53. Kirk Hamilton & John M. Hartwick, 2005. "Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 615-621, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2022. "Extraction path and sustainability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2011. "Investment and current utility change in dynamically inefficient economies," MPRA Paper 35487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2015. "Inefficiency and sustainability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 210-216.
    4. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2012. "Disregarded inefficiency may dominate sustainability policies," MPRA Paper 43621, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2011. "Зависимость Долгосрочного Роста Ресурсной Экономики От Начального Состояния: Сравнение Моделей На Примере Российской Нефтедобычи [The dependence of the potential sustainability of a resource econom," MPRA Paper 35888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2011. "Investment and resource policy under a modified Hotelling rule," MPRA Paper 32428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth in a resource-based economy: the extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 12350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2012. "Disregarded inefficiency may dominate sustainability policies," MPRA Paper 43621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2015. "Inefficiency and sustainability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 210-216.
    6. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2013. "Constant-utility paths in a resource-based economy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 342-355.
    7. Bazhanov, Andrei & Belyaev, Alexander, 2009. "Адекватность Закрытой Модели Для Российской Экономики В Задаче Сравнительного Анализа Энергетической Стратегии России [Adequacy of a closed model for Russian economy in the problem of comparative a," MPRA Paper 15109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2011. "Investment and current utility change in dynamically inefficient economies," MPRA Paper 35487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    10. Adrian Boos, 2015. "Genuine Savings as an Indicator for “Weak” Sustainability: Critical Survey and Possible Ways forward in Practical Measuring," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-37, April.
    11. Asheim, Geir B. & Hartwick, John M. & Mitra, Tapan, 2021. "Investment rules and time invariance under population growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Maximin-optimal sustainable growth in a resource-based imperfect economy," MPRA Paper 16245, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Jul 2009.
    13. Andrei V. Bazhanov, 2009. "A constant-utility criterion linked to an imperfect economy affected by irreversible global warming," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_03, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    14. Asheim, Geir B. & Buchholz, Wolfgang & Hartwick, John M. & Mitra, Tapan & Withagen, Cees, 2007. "Constant savings rates and quasi-arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 213-229, March.
    15. Asheim, Geir B. & Hartwick, John M. & Yamaguchi, Rintaro, 2023. "Sustainable per capita consumption under population growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2022. "Extraction path and sustainability," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    18. Louis Dupuy, 2012. "International Trade and Sustainability : A survey," Working Papers hal-00701426, HAL.
    19. Andrei Bazhanov, 2012. "A Closed-Form Solution to Stollery’s Problem with Damage in Utility," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 365-386, April.
    20. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Van Long, Ngo, 2009. "A mixed Bentham-Rawls criterion for intergenerational equity: Theory and implications," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 154-168, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonrenewable resource; weak sustainability; open imperfect economy; Russian oil extraction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2011:i:12:p:77-100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexey Tcharykov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nearuea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.