IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sgc/wpaper/31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study

Author

Listed:
  • Jacqueline M. Hamilton
  • David J. Maddison
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes in population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however the growth from climate change is smaller than for population and income changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/tourism_simstudy.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2003
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panayiota Lyssiotou, 2000. "Dynamic analysis of British demand for tourism abroad," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 421-436.
    2. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    3. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2002. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers FNU-15, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2003.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism And Recreation," Working Papers FNU-52, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    2. Andrea Bigano & Alessandra Goria & Jacqueline Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Effect of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Tourism," Working Papers 2005.30, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Bosello, Francesco & Delpiazzo, Elisa & Eboli, Fabio, 2015. "Macro-economic Impact Assessment of Future Changes in European Marine Ecosystem Services," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 199442, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Otrachshenko, Vladimir & Nunes, Luis C., 2022. "Fire takes no vacation: impact of fires on tourism," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 86-101, February.
    7. Onofri, Laura & Nunes, Paulo A.L.D., 2013. "Beach ‘lovers’ and ‘greens’: A worldwide empirical analysis of coastal tourism," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 49-56.
    8. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maten A. Lau, 2004. "The Role Of Climate Information In Tourist Destination Choice Decision-Making," Working Papers FNU-56, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    9. Nuno Carlos LEITÃO & Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2012. "Migration and Tourism Demand," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(567)), pages 39-48, February.
    10. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham & Qianxue Zhao, 2013. "Estimating Demand Elasticities in Non-Stationary Panels: The Case of Hawaii's Tourism Industry," Working Papers 201314, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    11. P. Michael Link & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The economic impact of a shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation: an application of FUND," Working Papers FNU-103, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
    12. Hsiao, Chiu-Ming & Zhang, Wei-Fang & Chiu, Chi-Chang & Huang, Jung-Chang & Huang, Yu-Ling, 2017. "The Enterprise Risk Management of Foreign Exchange Exposures: Evidence from Taiwanese Hospitality Industry," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 4(1), pages 32-48.
    13. Christine Schleupner & P. Michael Link, 2007. "Potential impacts on important bird habitats in Eiderstedt (Schleswig-Holstein) caused by agricultural land use changes," Working Papers FNU-138, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jun 2007.
    14. Lin, Tun & De Guzman, Franklin, 2007. "Tourism for pro-poor and sustainable growth: economic analysis of tourism projects," MPRA Paper 24994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Agiomirgianakis, George & Serenis, Dimitrios & Tsounis, Nicholas, 2017. "Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-38.
    16. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2016. "Forecasting extreme seasonal tourism demand," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-23, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    17. Niamh Callaghan & Richard S. J. Tol, 2013. "UK Tourists, the Great Recession and Irish Tourism Policy," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(1), pages 103-116.
    18. Eden Xiaoying Jiao & Jason Li Chen, 2019. "Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 469-492, May.
    19. Darboe, sarjo, 2024. "The Dynamic Impact of biodiversity on Tourism: empirical evidence from Gambia," MPRA Paper 120063, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Tourism demand forecasting with different neural networks models”," IREA Working Papers 201321, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourism demand; climate change; global model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Uwe Schneider (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zmhamde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.