IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2015.22.html

Macro-economic Impact Assessment of Future Changes in European Marine Ecosystem Services

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Bosello

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici and Università degli Studi di Milano)

  • Elisa Delpiazzo

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Fabio Eboli

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici)

Abstract

The present research has been developed within the EU FP7 VECTORS project (http://www.marine-vectors.eu/). The main scope of the project (2011-2015) has been to evaluate, from a multilateral perspective, drivers, pressures and vectors of changes in marine life of three main European seas (Baltic, Western Mediterranean, North), the mechanisms by which they do so and the impacts that they have on ecosystem structures and functioning as well as on economic activities and wellbeing. This paper describes the methodology, data elaboration and main results of a modelling exercise aiming to assess the economic effect of future changes in the EU marine ecosystem in the medium term (2030). We focus on those changes potentially affecting the fishing and the tourism sectors in two different IPCC SRES scenarios, the A2 and B1, varying in the future trends of population, GDP, prices, as well as the overall impact on environment. Sector-specific economic impacts are channeled through increases in fishing effort, due to lower availability of commercial fish species, and decrease in tourism demand following deterioration of marine ecosystem quality. Impacts on EU coastal countries Gross Domestic Product are negative and larger when the tourism sector is affected. This is explained by the much higher contribution of tourism than fishery in the production of value added. Negative impacts are also larger in the A2 than in the B1 scenario. The largest GDP losses due to adverse impacts on fishery are experienced by Spain (-0.13%), those related to tourism by Italy (almost -1%). Percent changes in sectoral production are notably larger than GDP ones: the largest contraction in fish sector production occurs in France (-24.7%). Notable decrease in coastal tourism demand occurs in Spain and the Netherlands. In general the Western Mediterranean is the most adversely affected region, whereas the Baltic Sea denotes a particular vulnerability to losses in tourism value added compared to the BAU. North Sea countries experience smaller losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bosello & Elisa Delpiazzo & Fabio Eboli, 2015. "Macro-economic Impact Assessment of Future Changes in European Marine Ecosystem Services," Working Papers 2015.22, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2015.22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://feem-media.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/NDL2015-022.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wunder, Sven, 2000. "Ecotourism and economic incentives -- an empirical approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 465-479, March.
    2. Delgado, C.L. & Wada, N. & Rosegrant, M.W. & Meijer, S. & Ahmed, M., 2003. "Fish to 2020: supply and demand in changing global markets," Monographs, The WorldFish Center, number 15796, April.
    3. Onofri, Laura & Nunes, Paulo A.L.D., 2013. "Beach ‘lovers’ and ‘greens’: A worldwide empirical analysis of coastal tourism," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 49-56.
    4. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
    5. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
    6. Haiyan Song & Stephen F. Witt & Gang Li, 2003. "Modelling and Forecasting the Demand for Thai Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 9(4), pages 363-387, December.
    7. Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2002. "Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists," Working Papers FNU-15, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2003.
    8. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    9. Burniaux, Jean-March & Truong, Truong P., 2002. "Gtap-E: An Energy-Environmental Version Of The Gtap Model," Technical Papers 28705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Berrittella & Andrea Bigano & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism," Working Papers FNU-49, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
    2. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    3. Britz, Wolfgang & Li, Jingwen & Shang, Linmei, 2021. "Combining large-scale sensitivity analysis in Computable General Equilibrium models with Machine Learning: An Example Application to policy supporting the bio-economy," Conference papers 333285, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. B. Henderson & A. Golub & D. Pambudi & T. Hertel & C. Godde & M. Herrero & O. Cacho & P. Gerber, 2018. "The power and pain of market-based carbon policies: a global application to greenhouse gases from ruminant livestock production," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 349-369, March.
    5. Banse, M. & Sorda, G., . "Impact of Different Biofuel Policy Options on Agricultural Production and Land Use in Germany," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45.
    6. Michetti, Melania & Parrado, Ramiro, "undated". "Improving land-use modelling within CGE to assess forest-based mitigation potential and costs," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124887, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Kerkelä, Leena, 2009. "Essays on globalization - Policies in trade, development, resources and climate change," Research Reports P50, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Jian Zhang & Denise Eby Konan, 2010. "The Sleeping Giant Awakes: Projecting Global Implications of China's Energy Consumption," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 750-767, November.
    9. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of The South-North Water Transfer Project In China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-117, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2006.
    10. Palatnik, Ruslana & Shechter, Mordechai, 2008. "Can Climate Change Mitigation Policy be Beneficial for the Israeli Economy? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Conference papers 331792, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Berrittella, Maria & Rehdanz, Katrin & Roson, Roberto & Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Water Taxes: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis with an International Data Set," Conference papers 331655, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. De Souza Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento, 1999. "Trade Creation X Trade Diversion: Evidences from the GTAP Model in the Mercosur Integration Process," Conference papers 330889, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Escobar, Neus & Haddad, Salwa & Britz, Wolfgang, 2018. "Economic and environmental implications of a target for bioplastics consumption: A CGE analysis," Conference papers 332940, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Ludena, Carlos E. & Mejia, Carla, 2012. "Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity and its Impacts on the Food Industry: A General Equilibrium Analysis," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126851, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Aline Souza Magalhães & Edson Domingues, 2009. "Regional inequality and growth: the role of interregional trade in the Brazilian economy," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td359, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    16. Dimaranan, Betina & Duc, Le Thuc & Martin, Will, 2005. "Potential Economic Impacts of Merchandise Trade Liberalization under Viet Nam’s Accession to the WTO," Conference papers 331403, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Esmedekh Lkhanaajav, 2016. "CoPS-style CGE modelling and analysis," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-264, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    18. Fang Yang & Chuanxin Zou & Chutong Li, 2023. "The Impact of Carbon Tariffs on China’s Agricultural Trade," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, May.
    19. Markandya, A. & Antimiani, A. & Costantini, V. & Martini, C. & Palma, A. & Tommasino, M.C., 2015. "Analyzing Trade-offs in International Climate Policy Options: The Case of the Green Climate Fund," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 93-107.
    20. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2015.22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alberto Prina Cerai The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Alberto Prina Cerai to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.