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The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism

Author

Listed:
  • Jacqueline M. Hamilton
  • David J. Maddison
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    () (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

We present a simulation model of the flow of tourists between 207 countries. The model almost perfectly reproduces the calibration year 1995, and performs well in reproducing the observations for 1980, 1985 and 1990. The model is used to generate scenarios of international tourist departures and arrivals for the period 2000-2075, with particular emphasis on climate change. The growth rate of international tourism is projected to increase over the coming decades, but may slow down later in the century as demand for travel saturates. Emissions of carbon dioxide would increase fast as well. With climate change, preferred destinations would shift to higher latitudes and altitudes. Tourists from temperate climates would spend more holidays in their home countries. As such tourists currently dominate the international tourism market, climate change would decrease worldwide tourism. The effects of climate change, however, are small compared to the baseline projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:36
    as

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    File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/htm11.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International tourism; climate change impacts; carbon dioxide emissions; scenarios;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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