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Cambio climático y estacionalidad turística en España: un análisis del turismo doméstico de costa/Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality in Spain: An Analysis of the Domestic Coastal Tourism

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    (Centre de Recerca Econòmica, UNIVERSIDAD DE LES ILLES BALEARS, ESPAÑA.)



    (Centre de Recerca Econòmica, UNIVERSIDAD DE LES ILLES BALEARS, ESPAÑA.)

El conocimiento actual de los efectos del cambio climático sobre los flujos turísticos internacionales que recibe España, permite vislumbrar un escenario altamente pesimista caracterizado por una pérdida de atractivo turístico. Sin embargo, más allá de estos resultados, la literatura especializada no ha abordado con suficiente profundidad dos factores de gran importancia en este análisis: el componente estacional de los flujos turísticos y el peso del mercado interior. En este sentido, este trabajo utiliza la temperatura promedio de cada temporada turística (alta, media y baja) para analizar el efecto estacional del cambio climático sobre la probabilidad de visitar un determinado destino turístico incluyendo, en este caso, las provincias costeras de la España peninsular. Los resultados obtenidos de la aplicación de un modelo de elección discreta muestran como las provincias costeras más cálidas se verán perjudicadas por un aumento de las temperaturas mientras que las más frías podrían verse beneficiadas, especialmente en temporada alta. Current knowledge of climate change consequences on international tourism in Spain suggests a highly pessimistic scenario characterized by a loss of tourist attraction. However, beyond these results, the literature has not considered with sufficient depth two important factors in this analysis: the seasonal component of tourist flows and the weight of the domestic market. By applying a discrete choice model, this paper analyzes the role of the average temperature for the three seasons of the year (high, medium and low) as a factor explaining the probability of visiting a particular destination, in this case, the coastal provinces of mainland Spain. The results show that rising temperatures will negatively affect warmer coastal provinces while cooler provinces could benefit, especially in high season.

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Article provided by Estudios de Economía Aplicada in its journal Estudios de Economía Aplicada.

Volume (Year): 29 (2011)
Issue (Month): (Diciembre)
Pages: 863-880

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Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:29_3_10
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  1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
  2. Andrea Bigano & Maria Berrittella & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism," Working Papers 2004.127, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132-132.
  4. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism In Germany, The Uk And Ireland: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-115, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Aug 2006.
  5. Richard S.J. Tol & Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton, 2005. "The Impact of Climate on Holiday Destination Choice," Working Papers 2005.4, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
  7. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
  8. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers 2006.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  9. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Maren A. Lau & Richard S.J. Tol & Zhou Yuan, 2004. "A Global Database Of Domestic And International Tourist Numbers At National And Subnational Level," Working Papers FNU-54, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
  10. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
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