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Cambio climático y estacionalidad turística en España: un análisis del turismo doméstico de costa/Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality in Spain: An Analysis of the Domestic Coastal Tourism

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  • BUJOSA BESTARD, ÁNGEL

    () (Centre de Recerca Econòmica, UNIVERSIDAD DE LES ILLES BALEARS, ESPAÑA.)

  • ROSSELLÓ NADAL, JAUME

    () (Centre de Recerca Econòmica, UNIVERSIDAD DE LES ILLES BALEARS, ESPAÑA.)

Abstract

El conocimiento actual de los efectos del cambio climático sobre los flujos turísticos internacionales que recibe España, permite vislumbrar un escenario altamente pesimista caracterizado por una pérdida de atractivo turístico. Sin embargo, más allá de estos resultados, la literatura especializada no ha abordado con suficiente profundidad dos factores de gran importancia en este análisis: el componente estacional de los flujos turísticos y el peso del mercado interior. En este sentido, este trabajo utiliza la temperatura promedio de cada temporada turística (alta, media y baja) para analizar el efecto estacional del cambio climático sobre la probabilidad de visitar un determinado destino turístico incluyendo, en este caso, las provincias costeras de la España peninsular. Los resultados obtenidos de la aplicación de un modelo de elección discreta muestran como las provincias costeras más cálidas se verán perjudicadas por un aumento de las temperaturas mientras que las más frías podrían verse beneficiadas, especialmente en temporada alta. Current knowledge of climate change consequences on international tourism in Spain suggests a highly pessimistic scenario characterized by a loss of tourist attraction. However, beyond these results, the literature has not considered with sufficient depth two important factors in this analysis: the seasonal component of tourist flows and the weight of the domestic market. By applying a discrete choice model, this paper analyzes the role of the average temperature for the three seasons of the year (high, medium and low) as a factor explaining the probability of visiting a particular destination, in this case, the coastal provinces of mainland Spain. The results show that rising temperatures will negatively affect warmer coastal provinces while cooler provinces could benefit, especially in high season.

Suggested Citation

  • Bujosa Bestard, Ángel & Rosselló Nadal, Jaume, 2011. "Cambio climático y estacionalidad turística en España: un análisis del turismo doméstico de costa/Climate Change and Tourism Seasonality in Spain: An Analysis of the Domestic Coastal Tourism," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 863-880, Diciembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:29_3_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Germany, The UK and Ireland: A Simulation Study," Papers WP174, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
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    Keywords

    Cambio Climático; turismo doméstico; estacionalidad; Familitur; turismo de costa ; Climate Change; Domestic Tourism; Seasonality; Familitur; Coastal Tourism.;

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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